Sector RS Rank Oct 20: Health Care Lead, Battery ETFs Fall

💡 Today's US market in three lines

① Today's three stocks: Eli Lilly · UnitedHealth · HubSpot — a drugmaker at a record close, a health insurer that raised its guidance, and a software company back above its 200-day average.

② On October 20, the S&P 500 rose +0.28% to 7,712.57 and the Dow gained +1.02% to 52,495.88. 89 of the 129 ETFs in our universe closed higher, and only 1 of the 11 sector SPDRs fell.

③ The health care sector SPDR rose +2.37% to a record close, while the energy storage fund lost -1.69%.

• 🧭 Why Leaders Keep Leading — Reading Sector Rotation Through RS and RRG

 

Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)

Oct 20 Sector RS — 129 ETFs · RRG v2

• Health care took the lead. Tech sat still. Money moved into drugmakers and insurers, and away from the AI power trade.
• The S&P 500 closed at 7,712.57, up +0.28% or 21.84 points. The Dow rose +1.02%, or 529.85 points, to 52,495.88. The Nasdaq slipped -0.02%, or 6.07 points, to 26,424.82. The Dow did the work because UnitedHealth, Amgen, Merck, and Johnson & Johnson are all in it. Over five sessions, the Nasdaq is still down -2.87% and the S&P 500 -1.19%. Value beat growth. The Russell 1000 Value fund (IWD) rose +0.89%, while the Russell 1000 Growth fund (IWF) fell -0.16%. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) gained +1.15%, and the Russell 2000 fund (IWM) +1.66%, so the average stock did better than the index.
• Breadth was wide. 89 of the 129 funds in our universe closed higher, 39 fell, and one was flat. Ten of the 11 sector SPDRs rose. Health care led at +2.37%, followed by real estate (+1.70%), utilities (+1.26%), and financials (+1.20%). Technology was the only sector down, at -0.28%.
• Reports said the S&P 500 health care index hit a record high, and analysts described the move as a rotation out of AI-heavy tech. The VIX fell -6.13% to 17.31. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.12% from 5.14%. Brent crude slipped -0.39% to $109.12 a barrel. Natural gas futures lost -2.13%. Gold fell -0.42% to $4,142.50, silver rose +2.05%, and Bitcoin gained +1.08% to near $82,740.

 

Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5

• Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, October 20, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.

ETF	1-Day	RS Rank 1M	Short-Term	Mid-Term	Long-Term
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV)	+2.37%	99	🔺	🔺	🔺
iShares U.S. Oil & Gas E&P (IEO)	+0.15%	98	🔺	🔺	🔺
Global X Genomics & Biotechnology (GNOM)	+3.16%	97	🔽	🔺	🔺
WisdomTree Cloud Computing (WCLD)	+3.45%	96	🔺	🔺	🔺
Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)	+0.25%	96	🔺	🔺	🔺

• Health care moved to the top. XLV now ranks 99, ahead of the oil producers that topped Monday's ranking. Four of the five sit above all three moving averages. GNOM is the exception: it is still below its 1-month average and is flat over one month (+0.07%). The iShares health care providers fund (IHF) ranks 94 and closed at a one-year high.

 

Why They're Strong — Sector Issues

Health Care Select Sector SPDR XLV Daily

· Health care and insurers (XLV · IHF) — Big drugmakers and insurers moved together. Eli Lilly rose +3.49%, Amgen +3.29%, Merck +3.25%, and UnitedHealth +3.04%. Cigna gained +2.71%, Elevance Health +2.31%, and CVS Health +2.23%. AbbVie and Pfizer both closed at one-year highs. XLV is up +5.99% over five sessions and +6.40% over one month. This is no longer a group that rises only when tech falls. It rose on a day the Nasdaq was flat.

iShares Oil and Gas Exploration IEO Daily

· Oil producers and energy (IEO · XLE) — Producers held still while crude eased. IEO rose +0.15% and XLE +0.25%. IEO is up +10.96% over one month, still the best monthly gain in our universe. The group slid one place in the ranking because health care moved faster, not because energy sold off.

 

1-Month RS Trend

45-Day RS Trend — 5 Sectors

• The 45-day chart tracks cloud computing, biotech, US pharma, energy storage, and AI power. The WisdomTree cloud fund (WCLD) fell to 29 on September 28 and has climbed back to 94 on this price-based line. The sheet ranks it 96. The SPDR biotech fund (XBI) hit bottom at 16 on October 13 and jumped to 54 in five sessions, against 49 on the sheet. The iShares US pharma fund (IHE) went from 31 to 77, its highest point in 45 days. The sheet has it at 76. The iShares energy storage fund (IBAT) peaked at 85 on October 5 and has dropped to 36, with the sheet at 38. The Defiance AI power fund (AIPO) fell from 83 on September 29 to 12. The sheet ranks it 25.

 

RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)

· The meme stock theme fund (MEME) fell -85 points in five sessions, from 89 to 4. The Roundhill generative AI fund (CHAT) lost -77 points, from 86 to 9. Both are down more than -10% over five sessions.

· The Defiance AI power fund (AIPO) lost -66 points, from 78 to 12, and the Global X data center fund (DTCR) -49 points, from 68 to 19. The chip funds show the same drop on the price-based line. The iShares semiconductor fund (SOXX) fell from 98 to 16, while the sheet still ranks it 69.

 

RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)

· The iShares US pharma fund (IHE) rebounded +46 points in five sessions, from 31 to 77. The SPDR biotech fund (XBI) gained +38 points, from 16 to 54, and the Roundhill GLP-1 fund (OZEM) +38 points, from 12 to 50.

· The SPDR pharmaceuticals fund (XPH) gained +36 points, from 9 to 45, and the iShares residential REIT fund (REZ) +41 points, from 32 to 73. Lower yields helped real estate.

 

Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)

• Basis: top 5 by October 20 closing move — 89 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.

ETF	1-Day	RS Rank 1M	Short-Term	Mid-Term	Long-Term
Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss (OZEM)	+3.89%	43	🔽	🔽	🔽
SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI)	+3.64%	49	🔺	🔽	🔺
WisdomTree Cloud Computing (WCLD)	+3.45%	96	🔺	🔺	🔺
Global X Genomics & Biotechnology (GNOM)	+3.16%	97	🔽	🔺	🔺
iShares Biotechnology (IBB)	+3.16%	86	🔺	🔺	🔺

• Four of the five are health care funds. GNOM edged out IBB by less than 0.01 percentage point. OZEM and XBI rank in the bottom half and are still down over one month, at -4.05% and -3.15%. Their gains look like a catch-up. WCLD and IBB are the ones already above all three moving averages.

 

Why They Rose — Sector Issues

SPDR SP Biotech XBI Daily

· Biotech and weight-loss drugs (OZEM · XBI · GNOM · IBB) — Reports said Goldman Sachs raised its Eli Lilly price target to $1,413, and the weight-loss fund holds Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Novo rose +2.42%. Biotech moved with it. Moderna jumped +6.69%, Regeneron +3.25%, and Vertex +2.53%. We found no single biotech headline behind the move. XBI is still about 10% below its one-year closing high from August 19.

WisdomTree Cloud Computing WCLD Daily

· Cloud software (WCLD) — Business software rose while chips stayed flat. Guidewire gained +7.08%, HubSpot +6.87%, DocuSign +4.72%, Paycom +3.68%, and ServiceNow +2.88%. Datadog fell -1.51%, so the group was not one trade. WCLD closed at a one-year high and is up +6.15% over one month. The weak side was the AI power trade. Eaton fell -2.43%, GE Vernova -1.99%, Constellation Energy -1.65%, and Vertiv -1.22%. We found no single headline for that drop.

 

Leading Sectors: Health Care, Oil Producers, Cloud Software

• ① Health care is now the top group in our universe. XLV ranks 99 and closed at a record. The rise came from both drugmakers and insurers, which do not usually move on the same news. That makes this look like a broad shift of money, not a single-stock story.
• ② Oil producers kept their place. IEO ranks 98 and is up +10.96% over one month. Brent near $109 a barrel supports earnings for the group even on quiet days.
• ③ Cloud software is the one tech group still near the top. WCLD ranks 96. The chip funds are not there. SOXX ranks 69 on the sheet and is down -8.07% over five sessions. Energy storage and AI power fell the most on the day. IBAT lost -1.69% and ranks 38. Its largest holding, Bloom Energy, fell -1.58% and is down -15.49% over five sessions ahead of its Thursday report. AIPO is down -9.94% over the same stretch.
• ④ The last report covered the October 19 close. Its three picks, measured from that close to Tuesday's: Accenture +0.92%, Box +3.19%, and CareDx +3.16%. The S&P 500 rose +0.28% over the same session. All three beat the index. Accenture closed at $239.12 against its $229.68 checkpoint, and Box at $41.75 against $39.56, a new all-time high. CareDx closed at $69.20 and has not yet cleared its $69.85 checkpoint. Recorded as is.

 

Today's Three Stocks — Eli Lilly · UnitedHealth · HubSpot Stock Forecast

 

Eli Lilly (LLY) — 1-Month RS 88: A Record Close

Eli Lilly LLY Daily

RS 1D	RS 5D	RS 1M	1M Return	Held By
90	97	88	+10.2%	iShares US Pharmaceuticals · VanEck Pharmaceutical · Health Care Select Sector SPDR

• Up +3.49% to $1,283.66, and +10.04% over five sessions. Tuesday's close is the highest in at least a year. Eli Lilly makes the weight-loss and diabetes drugs that lead the GLP-1 market, including its new oral pill, Foundayo. Reports said Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $1,413 from $1,371, and Bank of America raised its target to $1,397 the day before. For the quarter ended June 30, revenue rose +47.7% to $22.97 billion from $15.56 billion. Net income rose +25.3% to $7.10 billion from $5.66 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $7.94, up from $6.29. Third-quarter results are scheduled for October 29, according to reports. The Eli Lilly stock forecast depends on whether that report shows Foundayo sales adding to growth.

 

UnitedHealth (UNH) — 1-Month RS 90: Guidance Raised Again

UnitedHealth Group UNH Daily

RS 1D	RS 5D	RS 1M	1M Return	Held By
86	98	90	+11.0%	iShares US Healthcare Providers · Health Care Select Sector SPDR

• Up +3.04% to $419.26, and +10.99% over five sessions. The stock is about 4% below its one-year closing high of $436.35 from July 21. UnitedHealth is the largest US health insurer and also runs the Optum health services business. It reported third-quarter results on October 13. Revenue was $112.7 billion, slightly below $113.2 billion a year earlier. Earnings from operations rose to $6.6 billion from $4.3 billion. Earnings per share were $4.56, up from $2.59, and adjusted earnings per share were $4.69. The medical care ratio fell to 88.4% from 89.9%, which means less of each premium dollar went to claims. The company raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to at least $20.50 per share, from $19.50 to $20.00. The UnitedHealth stock forecast depends on whether medical costs stay under control into 2027.

 

HubSpot (HUBS) — 1-Month RS 97: Back Above the 200-Day Average

HubSpot HUBS Daily

RS 1D	RS 5D	RS 1M	1M Return	Held By
99	99	97	+17.3%	Global X Cloud Computing

• Up +6.87% to $250.76, and +13.32% over five sessions. The stock closed above its 200-day average of about $236.49. It is still about 49% below its one-year closing high of $494.58 from November 3, 2025. HubSpot sells marketing and sales software to small and mid-sized businesses. Reports pointed to the technical breakout and found no single company headline behind Tuesday's move. For the quarter ended June 30, revenue rose +19.8% to $911.7 million from $760.9 million. Operating income was $43.3 million, against a loss of $24.6 million a year earlier. Net income was $43.3 million, against a loss of $3.3 million. Diluted earnings per share were $0.86, compared with a loss of $0.06. Third-quarter results are expected on November 11 after the close. The HubSpot stock forecast depends on whether profit growth can repair a stock that lost half its value.

 

Eli Lilly · UnitedHealth · HubSpot Stock Forecast Checkpoints

· Eli Lilly stock forecast — The stock just set a record close. Watch whether it holds above $1,240.34, the October 19 close, into the October 29 report. Falling back below it would turn Tuesday's high into a one-day spike.

· UnitedHealth stock forecast — The stock has risen +10.99% in five sessions. Watch whether it clears $436.35, the July 21 closing high. A close above it would put the stock at a new one-year high.

· HubSpot stock forecast — The stock just moved back above its 200-day average. Watch whether it holds above $236.49. A drop below it would mean the breakout failed.

 

What to Watch on Next Week's Calendar

• Abbott, Thermo Fisher, Danaher, and Elevance Health results, Wednesday, October 21, 8:00 a.m. ET, before the open. Health care led Tuesday, and Elevance rose +2.31%. Elevance is the closest peer to UnitedHealth, so its medical cost numbers will test the insurer rally.
• Meta and Tesla results, Wednesday, October 21, 4:00 p.m. ET, after the close. Lam Research, Texas Instruments, and IBM report at the same time. Tech was the only sector down on Tuesday, and SOXX is down -8.07% over five sessions. Meta's spending plans will show whether the AI build-out still has a buyer.
• ESMO 2026 cancer conference, Friday, October 23. Moderna, Merck, and Summit Therapeutics are scheduled to present. Moderna rose +6.69% on Tuesday, and XBI ranks 49 after a +38-point rebound in five sessions. Trial data will show whether the biotech bounce has news behind it.

 

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