💡 Today's US market in three lines
① Today's three stocks: HF Sinclair · Delek US · Cracker Barrel — two refiners at or near one-year highs, and a restaurant chain at a one-year closing high.
② On October 13, the S&P 500 slipped -0.02% to 7,805.45 and the Dow fell -0.35% to 51,670.10. Only 53 of the 129 ETFs in our universe closed higher, and 6 of the 11 sector SPDRs fell.
③ Refiners rose +3.24% and natural gas +4.49%, while big banks fell on earnings and Citigroup dropped -5.60%.
Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- Refiners and gas rose. Banks and drug makers fell. The index barely moved.
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,805.45, down -0.02% or 1.79 points. The Nasdaq fell -0.15%, or 41.52 points, to 27,204.38. The Dow lost -0.35%, or 180.45 points, to 51,670.10. Style funds were flat. The Russell 1000 Growth fund (IWF) slipped -0.01% and the Russell 1000 Value fund (IWD) -0.05%. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) added +0.05%, and the Russell 2000 fund (IWM) lost -0.43%.
- Breadth was weak under a calm index. Only 53 of the 129 funds in our universe closed higher, 74 fell, and 2 were flat. Five of the 11 sector SPDRs rose. Energy led at +1.80%, followed by communication services (+0.74%), utilities (+0.58%), and materials (+0.57%). Health care fell the most at -1.35%. Financials lost -0.42%, industrials -0.28%, and staples -0.26%. Technology slipped -0.04%.
- Earnings season opened on Tuesday. The big banks reported first, and their stocks fell. Johnson & Johnson raised its outlook but still dropped. Memory chips stayed under pressure after Monday's news that Chinese memory maker CXMT had made progress on a new memory-cell design. Reports said South Korea's Kospi fell about 5.5%. WTI crude rose +1.12% to $94.79 a barrel, while Brent slipped -0.27% to $106.36. Natural gas futures jumped +4.80% to $3.32. Gold eased -0.15% to $4,184.20, and Bitcoin rose +1.96% to near $83,366. The VIX edged up +0.39% to 15.27. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.22% from 5.24% as bonds reopened after the holiday.
Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, October 13, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| Global X Cybersecurity (BUG) | -0.25% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity (CIBR) | -0.31% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Cybersecurity and Tech (IHAK) | -0.06% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Cloud Computing (CLOU) | -0.03% | 98 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| SonicShares Global Shipping (BOAT) | +1.28% | 97 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- The top of the table held steady. Cybersecurity keeps the top three spots for a fourth day, and the four software funds moved less than half a percent. BOAT moved up to fifth with a gain. It was the only leader that rose, and it closed at a one-year closing high.
Why They're Strong — Sector Issues
· Cybersecurity and cloud (BUG · CIBR · IHAK · CLOU) — The group drifted after Monday's pullback. Palo Alto Networks fell -1.68%, Fortinet -1.13%, and CrowdStrike -0.68%. Zscaler rose +1.28%. In cloud, Salesforce gained +1.75% while Datadog lost -1.37%. BUG is up +9.61% over one month and sits about 3% below its October 9 closing high.
· Shipping (BOAT) — Tanker owners kept climbing with crude and fuel prices. DHT Holdings rose +1.41% to another one-year closing high. Scorpio Tankers gained +1.44%, International Seaways +0.66%, and Okeanis Eco Tankers +0.64%. Frontline slipped -0.25%. BOAT is up +6.22% over five sessions.
1-Month RS Trend
- The 45-day chart tracks refiners, oil and gas producers, natural gas producers, biotech, and semiconductors. The VanEck oil refiners fund (CRAK) peaked at 99 on September 8, dipped to 69 on Monday, and jumped back to 88. The iShares oil and gas producer fund (IEO) fell to 51 on September 22 and now reads 94. The First Trust natural gas fund (FCG) bottomed at 10 on October 1 and has climbed to 45. The SPDR biotech fund (XBI) peaked at 88 on September 1 and dropped from 47 to 16 in one session. The iShares semiconductor fund (SOXX) reached 100 on September 30 and reads 98.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· The space theme fund (ORBX) fell -63 points in five sessions, from 88 to 25. Procure Space (UFO) lost -49 points, Global X autonomous and EV (DRIV) -27, and Roundhill humanoid robots (HUMN) -24.
· Space took the worst of it. AST SpaceMobile fell -8.54% on Tuesday and -25.44% over five sessions. UFO is down -8.10% over five sessions.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· Amplify online retail (IBUY) rebounded +38 points in five sessions, from 24 to 62. iShares medical devices (IHI) gained +33 points, SPDR retail (XRT) +19, Invesco solar (TAN) +15, and the materials SPDR (XLB) +15.
· Consumer funds are the common thread. IBUY and XRT both rose again on Tuesday, and consumer names like Cracker Barrel below rose with them.
Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by October 13 closing move — 53 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | +4.49% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔽 |
| VanEck Oil Refiners (CRAK) | +3.24% | 90 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares U.S. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production (IEO) | +3.14% | 93 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production (XOP) | +2.85% | 86 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Invesco Solar (TAN) | +2.07% | 22 | 🔽 | 🔽 | 🔽 |
- Four of the five come from oil and gas. CRAK and XOP both closed at one-year highs. TAN is the outlier. It still trades below all three averages, so its gain is a bounce, not a trend.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Refiners (CRAK · XOP · IEO) — Refiners rallied across the board. PBF Energy rose +7.23%, Par Pacific +8.13%, and Valero +4.69%. Delek US gained +4.42%, HF Sinclair +4.33%, and Phillips 66 +4.00%. Reports said a White House official called talk of a 90-day US diesel export ban "fake news," which removed a policy risk for the group. Several banks also raised their targets on PBF. CRAK is up +5.42% over one month.
· Natural gas and producers (UNG · FCG · IEO) — Natural gas futures rose +4.80%. Expand Energy gained +4.01%, Antero Resources +2.68%, Range Resources +2.56%, and EQT +2.27%. We found no single headline behind the move. UNG is up +6.24% over five sessions, but it still trades below its 1-year average.
Leading Sectors: Refiners, Oil and Gas Producers, Natural Gas
- ① Refiners took the lead. Fuel margins have stayed wide for months, and Tuesday's denial of an export ban cleared one fear. HF Sinclair, CRAK, and XOP all closed at one-year highs.
- ② Gas joined oil. Natural gas futures are up +6.58% over five sessions, and gas producers rose with them. Crude added +1.12%, and the energy SPDR is up +5.41% over five sessions.
- ③ Banks and drug makers took the hit. JPMorgan fell -0.86% after earnings per share of $5.57 missed estimates near $5.90. Wells Fargo lost -3.10% on weaker revenue. Citigroup beat estimates but fell -5.60%. Goldman Sachs gave back an early gain of more than 4% and ended -0.23%. Johnson & Johnson dropped -5.73% on weak medical-device sales, even after raising its outlook. The iShares pharmaceuticals fund (IHE), where J&J is about 22% of the fund, fell -2.82%.
- ④ The last report covered the October 12 close. Its three picks, measured from that close to Tuesday's: DHT Holdings +1.41%, HCA Healthcare +0.47%, and BJ's Wholesale -0.23%. The S&P 500 fell -0.02% over the same session. Two of three beat the index. DHT held its $24.93 checkpoint and set a new one-year closing high at $26.59. HCA stayed above $451.09. BJ's did not reach its $102.78 high. Recorded as is.
Today's Three Stocks — HF Sinclair · Delek US · Cracker Barrel Stock Forecast
HF Sinclair (DINO) — 1-Month RS 96: A Refiner at a One-Year High
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 99 | 99 | 96 | +19.9% | VanEck Oil Refiners · SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production · iShares U.S. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production |
- Up +4.33% to $128.23, a one-year closing high, and +11.89% over five sessions. The prior high was Monday's close of $122.91. HF Sinclair runs refineries across the western and central US and also sells lubricants. Its earnings have climbed fast this year. For the quarter ended June 30, revenue rose +53.2% to $10.39 billion from $6.78 billion. Operating income jumped to $1.17 billion from $275 million, and net income to $892 million from $208 million. The HF Sinclair stock forecast depends on whether fuel margins stay this wide into its third-quarter report in late October.
Delek US (DK) — 1-Month RS 88: Back Near Its September High
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 99 | 94 | 88 | +8.4% | SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production · VanEck Oil Refiners |
- Up +4.42% to $80.75, and +6.71% over five sessions. The stock is about 1.0% below its one-year closing high of $81.55 from September 17. Delek runs refineries in Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Its results swing hard with margins. For the quarter ended June 30, revenue rose +47.8% to $4.09 billion from $2.76 billion. Operating income was $302.4 million, against a loss of $33.5 million a year earlier, and net income was $169.5 million, against a loss of $106.4 million. The first quarter of 2026 was still a net loss of $201.3 million. Mizuho cut its rating on October 8, saying the gains look priced in. The Delek US stock forecast hinges on whether the third quarter repeats the second.
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) — 1-Month RS 97: Margins Before Traffic
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 98 | 97 | 97 | +21.2% | Invesco Leisure and Entertainment |
- Up +4.27% to $61.25, a one-year closing high, and +8.75% over five sessions. The prior high was $59.04 from August 17. Cracker Barrel runs family restaurants with attached gift shops, mostly along US highways. We found no company news on Tuesday. The rally started with its September report. For the quarter ended July 31, revenue fell -2.2% to $849.3 million from $868.0 million. Operating income rose to $13.1 million from $4.0 million, and net income to $12.2 million from $6.8 million. Reports said comparable restaurant sales fell -2.1% and guest traffic fell -6.1%. Profit is up while visits are down. The Cracker Barrel stock forecast depends on whether traffic stops falling.
HF Sinclair · Delek US · Cracker Barrel Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· HF Sinclair stock forecast — The stock is up +11.89% in five sessions. Watch whether it holds above $122.91, the old high it just cleared. A drop below it would turn the breakout into a false start.
· Delek US stock forecast — The stock sits about 1.0% below its high. Watch whether it closes above $81.55, the September 17 closing high. A close above it would mark a breakout.
· Cracker Barrel stock forecast — The stock is up +21.2% in one month. Watch whether it holds above $59.04, the August high it just cleared. Losing that level would erase Tuesday's breakout.
What to Watch on Next Week's Calendar
- September CPI, Wednesday October 14 (9:30 p.m. KST). WTI is near $95 a barrel, and gasoline is a sizable part of the index. A hot reading would push yields higher and test whether refiners can keep rising while inflation worries grow.
- Bank of America and Morgan Stanley results, Wednesday October 14 (9:00 p.m. KST). The bank fund KBWB fell -1.39% on Tuesday. The next two reports will show whether the cautious tone from JPMorgan and Citigroup was a one-day reaction or a trend.
- TSMC third-quarter results, Thursday October 15 (3:00 p.m. KST). ASML reports first, on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. KST. SOXX is down -7.73% over five sessions. TSMC's orders and guidance will show whether the memory scare spreads to the rest of the chip chain.
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