💡 Today's US market in three lines
① Today's three stocks: CrowdStrike · Palantir · Twilio — a security company at a one-year closing high, a software platform whose revenue nearly doubled, and a messaging company now priced as AI infrastructure.
② On September 23, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.11%, its highest since 2007, and the S&P 500 fell -0.75% to 7,706.03, with only 16 of the 129 ETFs in our universe closing higher and 10 of the 11 sector SPDRs in the red.
③ Cybersecurity rose +1.93% and oil +3.30%, while silver miners fell -5.33% and biotech -4.12%.
Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- Wednesday was a rates day. A hot business survey pushed Treasury yields to levels last seen in 2007, and almost everything tied to borrowing costs sold off. Only oil and cybersecurity held up.
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,706.03, down -0.75% or 58.61 points. The Nasdaq fell -1.13% to 26,936.04 and ended its two-day record run, and the Dow lost -0.68% to 51,511.59. Small caps took the worst of it, with the Russell 2000 down -1.77% and its fund (IWM) -1.84%. The Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ) fell -0.84% and the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) -0.70%. Value held up better than growth this time, -0.49% for the Russell 1000 Value fund (IWD) against -1.03% for the Russell 1000 Growth fund (IWF).
- Breadth collapsed: only 16 of the 129 funds in our universe closed higher and 113 closed lower. Among the eleven sector SPDRs, energy (+0.96%) was the only gainer. Utilities (-1.92%), real estate (-1.55%), and consumer discretionary (-1.50%) fell hardest. Those are the sectors that carry the most debt or sell the most on credit, and they reacted first.
- The trigger was economic data. S&P Global's flash survey for September came in at 57.0 for manufacturing against 53.7 expected, and 58.7 for services against 55.8. The 10-year yield rose about 14 basis points to 5.11%, and the five-year yield reached 5% for the first time since 2007. Fed Governor Michael Barr said further policy adjustments are likely needed. Futures now price roughly a 70% chance of another hike in October, only a week after the Fed raised rates on September 16. A strong economy is good news for earnings, but on Wednesday the market read it as a reason for higher rates.
Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, September 23, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| Global X Blockchain (BKCH) | -3.23% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Digital Transformation (DAPP) | -3.08% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Onchain Economy (NODE) | -2.99% | 98 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Genomics & Biotechnology (GNOM) | -2.01% | 97 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | +3.30% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- The top four ranks are the same as Tuesday's, three blockchain funds and genomics, and all four fell. Oil returned to the top five at 96, tied with the metaverse fund (METV), after sitting out Tuesday. All five funds still trade above all three moving averages. One day of selling has not broken the one-month leadership.
Why They're Strong — Sector Issues
· Blockchain and digital assets (BKCH · DAPP · NODE · BLOK) — Blockchain equities fell -3.23%, digital transformation -3.08%, onchain economy -2.99%, and Amplify's blockchain fund -2.40%. Bitcoin slipped about 2% to roughly $84,500, and Hut 8 lost -3.89%. Rising yields hit the most speculative corners of the market first. Even so, BKCH is still up +15.14% over five sessions. Wednesday took back about a fifth of that run, and the rank held at 100.
· Oil (USO) — The oil fund gained +3.30% and ended a five-session losing streak. European diesel margins hit a record after President Trump said he backed the idea of a diesel export ban, and it is still unclear when talks with Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz will produce a deal. The producers rose far less than the commodity. The energy SPDR (XLE) added +0.96% and the exploration fund (XOP) +0.57%. Investors bought the barrel for the short-term squeeze but did not pay up for the companies that pump it. USO is still -4.70% over five sessions.
1-Month RS Trend
- The 45-day chart tracks cybersecurity, cloud software, oil exploration, biotech, and solar. First Trust's cybersecurity fund (CIBR) started the window at 88, fell to 19 on September 9, and now sits at 95. Cloud software (WCLD) started at 96, dropped to 35 on the same day, and has recovered to 79. Oil exploration (XOP) spent much of the window in the 90s, fell to 43 on Tuesday, and bounced to 60. Biotech (XBI) went from 76 to a low of 4 in early August, peaked at 88 on September 1, and has slipped back to 40. Solar (TAN) stayed below 20 for most of the window and is at 28.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· Sports betting (BETZ) lost -67 points in five trading days, from 70 to 3, the steepest fall among funds whose sheet rank confirms the move. SPDR's insurance fund (KIE) dropped -45 points, food and beverage (PBJ) -44, iShares' insurance fund (IAK) -38, natural gas producers (FCG) -37, and VanEck's pharmaceutical fund (PPH) -36.
· Insurers, food makers, and drug companies were the defensive trade in mid-September. That money has been moving toward chips. Higher rates also make steady, bond-like stocks less attractive.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· The meme stock fund (MEME) rebounded +95 points in five sessions, from 3 to 98. Semiconductors (SOXX) gained +83 points, fabless chips (SMHX) +76, generative AI (CHAT) +67, quantum computing (QTUM) +63, and VanEck's semiconductor fund (SMH) +63.
· Chips fell on Wednesday, with SOXX down -1.23%, but the fund is still up +12.68% over five sessions. One bad day took only a small piece of the week's gain. The list is the same chip-led group as Monday's and Tuesday's.
Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by September 23 closing move — 16 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | +3.30% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Cybersecurity (BUG) | +1.93% | 95 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Cybersecurity and Tech (IHAK) | +1.47% | 82 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity (CIBR) | +1.40% | 90 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (IGV) | +1.26% | 85 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- Three of the five are cybersecurity funds and a fourth is software. Oil tops the list. Every fund on the table ranks 82 or higher and trades above all three moving averages. Nothing from the bottom of the RS table made it. On a day this broad, the only buyers were in groups that were already leading.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Cybersecurity (BUG · IHAK · CIBR) — Global X's cybersecurity fund rose +1.93%, iShares' +1.47%, and First Trust's +1.40%. CrowdStrike gained +4.97%, Palo Alto Networks +5.00%, and Okta +4.45%. None of them had company news. Investors treated security as a budget that companies do not cut in a slowdown, and the spread of AI agents gives attackers more to aim at. BUG has returned +17.86% over the past month, the best one-month gain in our universe.
· Software (IGV · WCLD) — The software fund added +1.26% and cloud software +1.00%. Palantir rose +3.68% and Twilio +2.17%. Semiconductors fell -1.23% on the same day, so the buying inside tech moved from hardware to software. Software sells subscriptions that renew every year. Investors are paying for that steady revenue at a time when rates are rising.
Leading Sectors: Blockchain, Oil, Cybersecurity
- ① Yields decided the day. With the 10-year at 5.11% and the average 30-year mortgage rate up to 7.26%, the highest in nearly two years, anything financed with debt fell together. Homebuilders (ITB) lost -2.46%, solar (TAN) -3.12%, and utilities -1.92%. Only 16 of 129 funds rose. The market has no broad support while rates move this fast.
- ② The RS table barely changed. Blockchain holds 100, 99, and 98, and oil is back at 96. Cybersecurity is the leader that is strengthening, with BUG at 95 and CIBR at 90, and it rose on a day when almost nothing else did. Precious-metal miners took the hardest hit. Silver miners fell -5.33%, junior gold miners -5.23%, and large gold miners -4.36%. Higher yields make metals that pay no interest less attractive, and the miners amplify every move in the metal.
- ③ Biotech (XBI) fell -4.12% and pharmaceuticals (XPH) -3.71%. Small biotech companies depend on outside funding, and a higher cost of money hits them directly. XBI ranks 48 and trades below its 1-month and 1-quarter moving averages. Its bounce in early September has now faded.
- ④ The last report covered the September 22 close. Its three picks, measured from that close to Wednesday: Micron -2.22%, Hut 8 -3.89%, and Natera -0.03%. The S&P 500 fell -0.75% over the same session. Only Natera beat the index, while Micron and Hut 8 fell further than the market. Recorded as is.
Today's Three Stocks — CrowdStrike · Palantir · Twilio Stock Forecast
- Selection: from the 1,136 stocks held by the universe's ETFs — RS 1D≥60 & 5D≥75 & 1M≥85, with all three moving averages aligned (▲▲▲)
CrowdStrike (CRWD) — 1-Month RS 99: A One-Year High on a Down Day
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 100 | 90 | 99 | +37.7% | First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity · iShares Expanded Tech-Software · Global X Cybersecurity |
- Up +4.97% to $262.49, its highest close in a year, and +8.75% over five sessions. The move came with the whole security group and without company news. The numbers show why investors keep buying. For the fiscal second quarter ended July 31, revenue rose 25.8% from a year earlier to $1.47 billion from $1.17 billion. Net income came to $5.3 million against a loss of $70.2 million, and the operating loss narrowed to $33.2 million from $105.5 million. The company is only just profitable, and its value rests on revenue growth. The CrowdStrike stock forecast depends on whether growth in the mid-20% range holds while customers add protection for AI agents.
Palantir (PLTR) — 1-Month RS 91: Six Straight Gains Toward the Old High
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 99 | 92 | 91 | +9.0% | Global X Defense Tech · iShares Expanded Tech-Software · ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics |
- Up +3.68% to $191.79, its sixth straight gain, and +10.01% over five sessions. The stock is still below its record close of $207.18 from November 2025. Rosenblatt reiterated its Buy rating and $225 target on Wednesday and argued that the FAA's air traffic AI rollout could still benefit Palantir, even though a startup won the $875 million contract in June. The fundamentals support the rally. Second-quarter revenue rose 92.8% from a year earlier to $1.94 billion from $1.00 billion. Operating income reached $912.0 million against $269.3 million, and diluted earnings were $0.41 per share against $0.13. The Palantir stock forecast now depends on whether revenue can keep growing near that pace, since the price already assumes it will.
Twilio (TWLO) — 1-Month RS 99: Messaging Priced as AI Infrastructure
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 96 | 99 | 99 | +30.6% | Global X Cloud Computing · WisdomTree Cloud Computing |
- Up +2.17% to $290.70, its highest close in a year, and +21.69% over five sessions. The stock jumped +9.11% on Monday and +6.94% on Tuesday. Rosenblatt raised its target to $290 and TD Cowen to $300 from $260, both pointing to consumer AI agents that will need messaging, voice, and identity services to reach customers. Second-quarter revenue rose 22.0% from a year earlier to $1.50 billion from $1.23 billion, and operating income more than doubled to $84.5 million from $37.0 million. Reported net income of $1.07 billion includes a one-time income tax benefit of $991.7 million, so the operating line is the better measure. The Twilio stock forecast rests on whether AI agents actually lift message volumes, because the price has already reached Rosenblatt's $290 target.
CrowdStrike · Palantir · Twilio Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· CrowdStrike stock forecast — The stock closed at a one-year high while the Nasdaq fell -1.13%. Watch whether it holds above Tuesday's close of $250.06 if rates keep rising. A stock that keeps rising against a falling market is still being accumulated.
· Palantir stock forecast — Six straight gains have brought the stock within 8% of its record. Watch whether it can close above $207.18. A failure there would leave the old high as resistance.
· Twilio stock forecast — The one-time tax benefit inflates reported profit. Watch whether operating income keeps growing in the third quarter. That is the number that has to justify a price already at Rosenblatt's target.
What to Watch on Next Week's Calendar
- US–China summit at the White House, Thursday September 24. President Xi Jinping's visit covers AI development, AI security, semiconductors, rare earths, and tariffs, and the state dinner is expected to include Nvidia's Jensen Huang, Apple's Tim Cook, and OpenAI's Sam Altman. Chips have gained +83 points of RS rank in five sessions, partly on hopes for this meeting. A concrete easing of chip trade rules would support that rebound. A vague statement would leave it exposed to rates.
- August PCE price index, Wednesday September 30 (9:30 p.m. KST). Futures give roughly a 70% chance of another Fed hike in October, and the 10-year yield sits at 5.11%. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. A hot reading would add to the pressure on utilities, homebuilders, and biotech, which fell hardest on Wednesday. A soft one would give them their first relief.
- US budget deadline for fiscal 2027, Wednesday September 30. Congress has to pass funding by the end of the month or the government shuts down. A shutdown would delay federal data releases and add another source of uncertainty for the bond market at a time when yields are already at 2007 levels.
- Micron earnings, Thursday October 1 (5:00 a.m. KST). Micron, one of our previous picks, fell -2.22% on Wednesday but is still up +15.69% over five sessions. The report will test whether the chip rebound in the RS table rests on earnings. A strong fourth quarter would support SOXX's jump from 12 to 95 in five sessions. A miss would put the whole group back in question.
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