💡 Today's US market in three lines
① Today's three stocks: Meta · 10x Genomics · CareDx — a platform that now has a plan to earn money from its AI agent, a lab-tools maker at a one-year high, and a transplant-test company whose testing revenue rose 61%.
② On September 24, the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,704.13 (-0.02%) while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.16%. Only 39 of the 129 ETFs in our universe closed higher, and 8 of the 11 sector SPDRs fell.
③ Natural gas jumped +6.26% and genomics +3.67%, while solar fell -3.51% and hydrogen -3.05%.
Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- The index barely moved on Thursday, but most stocks fell. Yields climbed again, and the market split between a few groups with their own news and everything that depends on cheap money.
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,704.13, down -0.02% or 1.90 points. The Nasdaq edged up +0.01% to 26,939.37 after trimming an early loss, and the Dow fell -0.31% to 51,350.00. The Russell 2000 slipped -0.11%. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) lost -0.50% while the Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ) was flat at -0.01%, so the average stock did worse than the largest ones. Growth beat value, +0.18% for the Russell 1000 Growth fund (IWF) against -0.26% for the Russell 1000 Value fund (IWD).
- Breadth stayed weak: only 39 of the 129 funds in our universe closed higher, 89 closed lower, and one was unchanged. Among the eleven sector SPDRs, only communication services (+1.27%), health care (+0.63%), and energy (+0.37%) rose. Materials (-1.19%), utilities (-0.98%), and consumer staples (-0.89%) fell the most.
- The 10-year yield rose about 5 basis points to 5.16%, extending its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year yield reached 5.46%, its highest since 2004. Weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000, which gives the Fed no reason to ease. Stocks cut their losses late in the day after Reuters reported that US and Iranian negotiators were working on a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At the White House, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US–China trade truce would be extended to January 10, 2027. Neither headline was enough to lift the broad market while rates kept rising.
Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, September 24, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| Global X Blockchain (BKCH) | -0.97% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Digital Transformation (DAPP) | -0.43% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | +2.86% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | +6.26% | 98 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔽 |
| Global X Cybersecurity (BUG) | -1.00% | 97 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- Energy now holds two of the top four spots. Oil moved up to 99 from 96, and natural gas entered the top five at 98. Genomics ranked 97 on Wednesday and fell to 85 today even though it rose +3.67%, because its one-month gain is now smaller than those of the funds around it. Blockchain still holds 100 and 99. Four of the five funds trade above all three moving averages, and natural gas is the exception, still below its one-year average.
Why They're Strong — Sector Issues
· Natural gas and oil (UNG · USO) — The natural gas fund jumped +6.26%. The Energy Information Administration reported that 53 billion cubic feet went into storage in the week ended September 18, well short of the usual pace for the season, and lower production added to the squeeze. Futures closed firmly above $3 per million BTU, their highest level since July. The oil fund added +2.86%. Gas producers moved far less, with EQT up +1.59% and Expand Energy +1.82%. Investors bought the commodity and paid little extra for the companies that produce it. UNG is up +11.81% over five sessions.
· Blockchain (BKCH · DAPP · NODE) — Blockchain equities fell -0.97%, digital transformation -0.43%, and onchain economy -0.42%. It was the group's second down day in a row, but a much smaller one than Wednesday's. BKCH is still up +9.36% over five sessions and keeps the top rank of 100.
1-Month RS Trend
- The 45-day chart tracks natural gas, genomics, communication services, uranium, and clean energy. Natural gas (UNG) started the window at 20, fell to 1 in early August, and now sits at 98, its high for the window. Genomics (GNOM) started at 86, dropped to 14 on August 5, peaked at 99 on September 17, and is at 82. Communication services (XLC) went from 42 to a low of 15 on August 13, reached 85 on September 16, and is at 74. Uranium (URA) peaked at 96 on August 27 and has fallen to 2, its low for the window. Clean energy (ICLN) climbed from 9 to 74 on September 22 and fell back to 52 in two sessions.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· Timber (WOOD) lost -24 points in five trading days, from 71 to 47, the steepest fall among funds whose sheet rank confirms the move. VanEck's agribusiness fund (MOO) dropped -22 points, Global X's agtech fund (KROP) -20, hydrogen (HYDR) -18, and global shipping (BOAT) -17.
· Timber, farm equipment, and shipping all depend on construction and trade volumes. With the average 30-year mortgage rate at 7.37%, the highest since May 2024, housing-linked materials are losing ground. Gold and silver miners show bigger drops in our five-day calculation, but the sheet ranks do not confirm them, so they are left out.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· AI power infrastructure (AIPO) rebounded +45 points in five sessions, from 27 to 72. Quantum computing (QTUM) gained +44 points, US manufacturing (MADE) +40, smart grid (GRID) +35, and robotics and AI (BOTZ) +33.
· The list has moved from chips to the physical side of the AI build-out: power equipment, the grid, factories, and robots. QTUM is up +3.90% over five sessions and AIPO +1.52%. The rank gains built up over several sessions.
Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by September 24 closing move — 39 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | +6.26% | 98 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔽 |
| Global X Genomics & Biotechnology (GNOM) | +3.67% | 85 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | +2.86% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Biotechnology (IBB) | +1.28% | 57 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Communication Services Select Sector SPDR (XLC) | +1.27% | 78 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔽 |
- Two energy funds lead, two health-care funds follow, and communication services rounds out the list. Three of the five already rank 85 or higher. Only 39 funds rose at all, and the gains went to groups with news of their own.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Genomics and biotech (GNOM · IBB) — The genomics fund rose +3.67% and the iShares biotech fund +1.28%. Twist Bioscience jumped +16.11% after Leerink raised its price target to $160 from $120. 10x Genomics gained +11.23%, Illumina +7.25%, and Moderna +6.98%. CareDx added +13.00% on a BTIG target increase. Most of these moves came without new quarterly results. Health care was one of only three sector SPDRs to rise, and genomics led it.
· Communication services (XLC) — The sector SPDR gained +1.27%, the best of the eleven. Meta rose +4.50%, Alphabet +1.34%, and Disney +2.03%. Meta makes up 22.4% of the fund, so one company did most of the work. Investors paid for Meta's plan to earn fees from its AI agent, a revenue source that does not depend on ad spending.
Leading Sectors: Natural Gas, Genomics, Communication Services
- ① Rates set the tone again. The 10-year yield rose to 5.16%, and mortgage rates reached their highest level since May 2024. Solar (TAN) fell -3.51%, hydrogen -3.05%, uranium (URA) -2.69%, and clean energy (ICLN) -2.58%. First Solar dropped -10.32% as reports tied the solar selloff to the cost of financing utility-scale projects. Projects built with borrowed money are worth less when money costs more.
- ② The leaders had their own reasons to rise. Natural gas had a storage shortfall. Communication services had Meta's agent plan. Genomics had a series of analyst target increases. Natural gas now ranks 98 and oil 99 on the sheet, and both trade above their 1-month and 1-quarter moving averages.
- ③ Precious-metal miners kept falling. Gold miners (GDX) lost -1.29% and silver miners (SIL) -1.37%, which extends their five-session losses to -3.72% and -4.26%. Metals that pay no interest look less attractive each time yields rise. Materials was the weakest sector SPDR at -1.19%, and utilities have lost -5.59% over five sessions.
- ④ The last report covered the September 23 close. Its three picks, measured from that close to Thursday: CrowdStrike -1.07%, Palantir +0.42%, and Twilio +3.08%. The S&P 500 fell -0.02% over the same session. Palantir and Twilio beat the index, and CrowdStrike trailed it. Recorded as is.
Today's Three Stocks — Meta · 10x Genomics · CareDx Stock Forecast
- Selection: from the 1,134 stocks held by the universe's ETFs — RS 1D≥60 & 5D≥75 & 1M≥85, with all three moving averages aligned (▲▲▲)
Meta (META) — 1-Month RS 99: A Price Tag for the AI Agent
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 97 | 98 | 99 | +36.4% | Communication Services Select Sector SPDR · Global X Social Media · First Trust Dow Jones Internet |
- Up +4.50% to $777.59, its highest close in a year, and +13.96% over five sessions. At its Connect conference on Wednesday, Mark Zuckerberg said the Muse AI agent will stay free up to a large usage allowance and that Meta will take a small fee from the transactions it completes. The company added PayPal support and shopping links with Walmart, Best Buy, and Sephora, and plans a handheld Muse device for the holiday season. The numbers show why investors wanted a revenue plan. For the second quarter ended June 30, revenue rose 28.0% from a year earlier to $60.80 billion from $47.52 billion. Costs and expenses rose 55.2% to $42.03 billion, and operating income fell -8.2% to $18.78 billion from $20.44 billion. Diluted earnings were $6.18 per share against $7.14. Meta is spending faster than it is growing. The Meta stock forecast depends on whether Muse fees can start to close that gap.
10x Genomics (TXG) — 1-Month RS 99: A Group Rally Without Company News
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 100 | 94 | 99 | +30.0% | Global X Genomics & Biotechnology |
- Up +11.23% to $84.11, its highest close in a year, and +9.28% over five sessions. The company issued no news on Thursday. The stock moved with the genomics group, and its recent catalysts are older. On August 28 a Delaware jury found that Parse Biosciences, a Qiagen unit, willfully infringed three patents licensed to 10x's Scale Biosciences. On September 10 the Korean AI pathology firm Lunit said 10x will use its image-analysis software alongside the Xenium and Atera spatial platforms. The business itself is growing slowly. Second-quarter revenue was $151.0 million against $172.9 million a year earlier, but the year-ago figure included $27.3 million of one-time license and royalty revenue from the Bruker settlement. Without it, revenue rose about 3.7%. The operating loss was $19.6 million, against a year-ago profit of $30.1 million that included a $40.7 million settlement gain. The 10x Genomics stock forecast rests on whether spatial products can speed up growth, because the price has moved much faster than revenue.
CareDx (CDNA) — 1-Month RS 97: Testing Revenue Up 61%
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 100 | 97 | 97 | +20.8% | Global X Genomics & Biotechnology |
- Up +13.00% to $61.37, its highest close in a year, and +13.06% over five sessions. BTIG kept its Buy rating and raised its target to $74 from $60 after meeting management in Boston, citing the positive resolution of a Medicare coverage decision for transplant testing. The results back the call. Second-quarter revenue rose 52.2% to $131.9 million from $86.7 million, and testing services revenue rose 61% to about $100 million on 17% more tests. Reported net income of $110.6 million includes a $113.0 million gain from selling the lab products business, so non-GAAP net income of $20 million, up from $6 million, is the better measure. The company now expects 2026 revenue of $490 million to $500 million. The CareDx stock forecast depends on whether test volumes keep growing now that the company is a pure testing business.
Meta · 10x Genomics · CareDx Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· Meta stock forecast — Operating income fell -8.2% in the second quarter while revenue grew 28.0%. Watch whether operating income returns to growth in the third-quarter report. That report will show whether spending is starting to slow.
· 10x Genomics stock forecast — The stock rose +11.23% without company news. Watch whether it holds above the September 21 close of $79.10, the previous one-year high. A drop back below it would point to a group trade rather than a change in the business.
· CareDx stock forecast — The lab products sale inflated reported profit. Watch whether testing volume growth stays near 17% in the third quarter. That is the number that has to carry the stock without the one-time gain.
What to Watch on Next Week's Calendar
- August PCE price index, Wednesday September 30 (9:30 p.m. KST). The 10-year yield rose again to 5.16% on Thursday, and solar, hydrogen, and uranium funds fell the most. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. A hot reading would push yields higher and extend the pressure on those groups. A soft one would give them their first relief.
- US budget deadline for fiscal 2027, Wednesday September 30. Congress has to pass funding by the end of the month or the government shuts down. A shutdown would delay federal data releases at a time when the bond market is already setting the direction for stocks.
- OpenAI DevDay, Tuesday September 29 (US time). Sam Altman gives the keynote. Meta rose +4.50% on its plan to take fees from transactions made through its Muse agent. Any OpenAI move into agent shopping or payments would test how much of an edge that plan really gives Meta.
- Micron earnings, Thursday October 1 (5:00 a.m. KST). The semiconductor fund (SOXX) ranks 92 on the sheet after a sharp rebound in September. A strong fourth quarter from Micron would support that rebound. A miss would put the chip group back in question.
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