💡 Today’s US market in three lines
① Today’s three stocks: Dell Technologies · Skyworks Solutions · Valero Energy — an AI server maker, a semiconductor supplier, and an oil refiner that together span the two loudest trades of the session.
② On September 11, the S&P 500 closed +0.86% higher at 7,656.98 and the Dow gained 509 points to 52,573.29. Of the 129 ETFs in our universe, 94 rose, and 9 of the 11 sector SPDRs finished green.
③ CPI came in at 3.4% year on year, right on consensus, and crude oil pulled back from $100 after Thursday’s surge. Nuclear and uranium stocks fell the hardest as UBS downgraded NuScale to sell.
Today’s Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- The August CPI did what the market wanted — nothing surprising. The consumer price index rose 0.4% month on month, putting the twelve-month rate at 3.4%, exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus. Treasury yields fell from their two-decade peaks and equities snapped a four-day losing streak.
- Oil told the opposite story. WTI crude settled at $100.05 after falling 2.4% on the day, a profit-taking session following Thursday’s 6% surge. Reports of a temporary arrangement to improve shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gave traders an excuse to lock in gains. The weekly picture remains dramatic — Brent closed above $100 for the first time since May, with a weekly gain near +9%.
- The S&P 500 closed +0.86% at 7,656.98, the Nasdaq +0.96% at 26,333.04, and the Dow +0.98% at 52,573.29. Underneath, 94 of the 129 ETFs in the universe rose against 33 that fell, and 9 of the 11 sector SPDRs finished green. Only healthcare (XLV -0.18%) and utilities (XLU -0.31%) ended in the red.
- The one group that got crushed despite the broad rally was nuclear. UBS downgraded NuScale Power to sell with a price target cut from $10 to $6, citing a five-year-plus build timeline and roughly $700 million of projected cash burn through 2028. VanEck Uranium Miners (NLR) fell -3.91% and Global X Uranium (URA) dropped -3.27%. Both sit below all four moving averages.
Today’s Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the ‘Sector RS (US)’ sheet — 129-ETF universe, September 11, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| VanEck Oil Refiners (CRAK) | +0.06% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| US Oil Fund (USO) | -2.20% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| SonicShares Global Shipping (BOAT) | +1.90% | 98 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Oil & Gas E&P (IEO) | +0.21% | 97 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Silver Miners (SIL) | +0.17% | 96 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- Energy holds four of the top five seats and has held that formation for more than a month. Silver miners carry a high RS from last month’s precious-metals run but now sit below their short-term average — momentum is fading even as the rank holds. CRAK and USO share an RS of 99 at the top. The key difference on the day is that USO fell as crude pulled back while CRAK barely moved. Refiners benefit from wide crack spreads, which held up even as the barrel itself retreated.
Why They’re Strong — Sector Issues
· Oil refiners and E&P (CRAK · USO · IEO · XOP) — Crude oil crossed $100 on Thursday for the first time since May and held that level through Friday’s pullback. The Middle East shipping-disruption narrative drove the initial spike, and Friday’s retreat looks like profit-taking rather than a thesis change. Refiners specifically benefit from both crude price and crack spreads — Valero’s UBS upgrade to $450 on Monday was the sector’s clearest endorsement. The energy chain holds RS ranks from 91 (XLE) to 99, a dominance that has lasted more than a month.
· Global shipping (BOAT) — Up +1.90% with an RS of 98 and a +17.25% month. Tanker rates have been climbing alongside crude since the Strait of Hormuz concerns accelerated in late August. Frontline gained +1.67% and Teekay Tankers +2.64% in the same session. This basket is effectively a leveraged play on oil logistics disruption.
· Blockchain and crypto (BKCH · DAPP · NODE) — Global X Blockchain rose +2.71%, VanEck Digital Transformation +2.10%, and VanEck Onchain Economy +2.28%. Bitcoin held above $77,000 as yields fell and the dollar softened. The CLARITY Act, a stablecoin regulation framework, goes to a Senate cloture vote on Monday — passage would remove a regulatory overhang that has weighed on crypto equities for months. BKCH’s RS has surged from 3 to 97 over 45 trading days, the largest single-line traverse in the universe.
1-Month RS Trend
- Over 45 trading days, the energy complex cemented its lead and blockchain went from the very bottom of the board to the top. BKCH’s RS rose from 3 to 97, a near-complete traverse that took less than two months. HERO (gaming) held a middle position, oscillating between 60 and 94 before settling at 77. On the other side, NLR (nuclear) collapsed from 90 to 32 and REMX (rare earths) fell from 95 to 12. The crossing of these two groups — commodity-linked strength against industrial-metal and nuclear weakness — is the defining rotation of September.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· Rare earths fell -59 points in five trading days, from 71 to 12, the largest single drop on the board. Critical minerals lost -50, uranium -40, and nuclear -39. The entire nuclear-and-rare-earth supply chain moved together, dragged by the UBS NuScale downgrade and a broader repricing of build timelines for next-generation reactors.
· GLP-1 drug stocks (OZEM) fell -50 points from 67 to 17, cloud computing lost ground (WCLD -33, CLOU -26), and metals mining (XME) fell -28. The breakdown in cloud is notable because it happens alongside strong earnings from Dell and HPE in the adjacent AI-infrastructure trade — the market is splitting consumption from capacity within the same data-center story.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· AI chips and quantum (CHPX) bounced +35 points from 39 to 74, the largest rebound of the week. Residential REITs (REZ) gained +34, social media (SOCL) +30, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) +29, all climbing from the bottom quartile. Semiconductors are clawing back — SMH rose +23 points and VanEck Fabless (SMHX) +24.
· The semiconductor bounce is earnings-driven. Dell’s record AI-server quarter and Skyworks’ beat on IoT and automotive validated the demand side of the chip stack at a moment when Broadcom’s beat-and-fall the week before had left the whole group shaken.
Today’s Gainers TOP 5 (%1D basis)
- Of the 129 ETFs in our universe, these rose the most on September 11.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| iShares Digital Infra & Tech REIT (IDGT) | +3.07% | 63 | 🔽 | 🔽 | 🔺 |
| Global X Blockchain (BKCH) | +2.71% | 93 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔽 |
| Global X Gaming & E-Sports (HERO) | +2.38% | 75 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔽 |
| VanEck Onchain Economy (NODE) | +2.28% | 87 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Hydrogen (HYDR) | +2.14% | 79 | 🔺 | 🔽 | 🔺 |
Why They Rose
- The top of the daily board belongs to yield-sensitive and risk-on sectors. IDGT’s +3.07% session came on the Treasury-yield drop — data-center REITs are essentially long-duration assets, and a move from 4.80% to 4.76% on the 10-year is meaningful when the cap rate is built on that yield. Blockchain and gaming benefit from the same impulse: lower yields lift the present value of stretched cash flows. Hydrogen’s +2.14% is the outlier — a dead-cat bounce from months of selling rather than a fresh bid. The daily gainers list and the RS leaders list share zero names, which tells you the rotation on the day was about mean reversion rather than conviction. Meanwhile nuclear and uranium — NLR -3.91% and URA -3.27% — were the only groups with severe damage on a day where 94 ETFs rose.
Leading Sectors : Dell Technologies, Skyworks Solutions, Valero Energy
- ① Energy still dominates the RS table and has for more than a month. Four of the top five seats are oil-related, and the RS floor for the energy chain is 91 (XLE). The question is no longer whether energy leads but whether crude can hold above $100 next week when FOMC results land and profit-taking has room to run.
- ② Semiconductors are bouncing. CHPX gained +35 RS points in five days, and SOXX clawed back +29. Dell’s record revenue and Skyworks’ IoT beat gave the group earnings cover at a moment when it needed it most. The bounce is still inside the Lagging quadrant on the RRG — a rebound signal, not a regime change.
- ③ Nuclear is the week’s biggest casualty. NLR and URA fell -39 and -40 RS points in five sessions, both now below all four moving averages. The UBS downgrade of NuScale crystallized what the market was already pricing in — next-generation reactor timelines are pushing out, not pulling in.
- ④ In yesterday’s report, the three picks were Devon Energy (DVN), Frontline (FRO), and Calumet (CLMT). Over one trading day against the S&P 500’s +0.85%, DVN returned +0.42%, FRO +1.67%, and CLMT +0.64%. Only Frontline outperformed the index. The two that lagged are both tied to crude, which pulled back on the same session. The energy thesis was intact — the day just happened to be the first profit-taking session after a 6% surge.
Today’s 3 Stocks — Dell · Skyworks · Valero Stock Forecast
Dell Technologies (DELL) — RS 97, AI Servers Set a Record
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 100 | 98 | 97 | +17.1% | VanEck Digital Transformation |
- Up +12.0% to $561 after reporting record second-quarter results. Revenue came in at $46.97 billion, and diluted EPS reached $6.34, up from $5.24 in the prior quarter. Net income was $4.13 billion. The infrastructure solutions group, which houses AI-optimized servers, drove the beat — management attributed the acceleration to enterprise AI deployments pulling capacity orders forward from 2027 into the current year. The stock has gained 266% year to date and now trades at the highest level in its history. The Dell stock forecast rests on whether the AI server backlog converts into sustained margins or whether the hardware cycle peaks once the current wave of data-center buildouts is complete. The next quarter’s guidance will be the test — anything below this quarter’s run rate would signal that the pull-forward is already fading.
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) — RS 99, IoT and Auto Drive the Beat
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 98 | 100 | 99 | +26.8% | Global X IoT · S&P Kensho New Economy · VanEck Semiconductor |
- Up +5.1% to $92 after fiscal third-quarter revenue of $935 million beat the midpoint of guidance. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.08. Broad Markets delivered another quarter of year-over-year growth, led by double-digit gains in automotive and data center. Management announced a $2 billion buyback and remained optimistic about closing the Qorvo combination within the calendar year, which is expected to be immediately accretive to non-GAAP EPS. The stock has gained +26.8% in a month, the strongest run in the semiconductor universe. The Skyworks stock forecast depends on whether the Qorvo deal closes on time and whether the automotive pipeline, which now contributes more than mobile to the growth rate, can sustain double-digit expansion through the integration.
Valero Energy (VLO) — RS 97, Refining at Full Capacity
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 71 | 94 | 97 | +18.2% | iShares Oil & Gas E&P · VanEck Oil Refiners · SPDR Energy |
- Up +1.3% to $385 and trading at its highest level since 2022. Second-quarter EPS was $12.62 with net income of $3.72 billion, powered by wide crack spreads as crude oil pushed above $100. UBS raised the price target to $450 from $355 on Monday, calling Valero the best-positioned independent refiner for the current oil environment. The company operates 15 refineries with 3.2 million barrels per day of throughput — the scale advantage means that every dollar of crack-spread widening drops almost entirely to the bottom line. The Valero stock forecast is a direct bet on oil staying elevated. Refining margins compress fast when crude falls, and the FOMC decision next week could shift rate expectations in a direction that cools commodity prices. The stock has returned +143.6% over twelve months with dividends reinvested.
Dell · Skyworks · Valero Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· Dell stock forecast — Record AI-server revenue was the quarter, but hardware cycles peak. Watch whether Q3 guidance holds this quarter’s $47 billion run rate or signals that the enterprise AI pull-forward is already fading.
· Skyworks stock forecast — The Qorvo deal is the next catalyst and the next risk. Watch whether antitrust clearance comes before year-end and whether automotive growth stays in double digits through the integration.
· Valero stock forecast — Refining margins are a crude-price derivative. Watch whether WTI holds above $95 after the FOMC decision, since every $5 move in crude translates directly to crack-spread pressure.
What to Watch on Next Week’s Calendar
- FOMC policy decision, Wednesday September 17, 3:00 a.m. KST (Tuesday 2:00 p.m. ET). The biggest event of the month. Today’s CPI came in on consensus, but services inflation remains hot at ISM 55.4 and crude oil is at $100. The market expects a hold, but the Summary of Economic Projections will reveal whether the dot plot still signals one more hike this year. Energy and yield-sensitive sectors — everything from CRAK to IDGT — will reprice on the dot plot alone.
- CLARITY Act Senate cloture vote, Monday September 15. The stablecoin regulation bill needs 60 votes to advance. Passage would be structurally bullish for BKCH, DAPP, and the entire crypto-equity complex that just traversed from RS 3 to 97. Failure would remove the regulatory tailwind that has been part of the recent bid.
- US August retail sales, Tuesday September 16, 9:30 p.m. KST. The consumer-spending read that tells us whether the rate environment is cooling demand or just slowing it. A strong number reinforces the hawkish case ahead of FOMC; a miss gives the doves ammunition to argue for a hold.
- BOJ rate decision, Thursday September 18 (announcement 12:00 KST). Markets price an 82% probability of a hike to 1.25%. A surprise hold would weaken the yen and support dollar-denominated commodities including crude. A hike could trigger carry-trade unwinds that show up as volatility in US equities within hours.
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