💡 Today's US market in three lines
① Today's three stocks: Micron · Bloom Energy · Nebius — a memory chipmaker, a fuel cell manufacturer, and an AI infrastructure builder, each up more than 6% on a day the broad market fell.
② On September 4, the S&P 500 slipped -0.38% to 7,718.60 and the Dow lost 271.86 points to 53,414.25. Of the 127 ETFs in our universe, 62 rose against 65 that fell, and 8 of the 11 sector SPDRs finished red.
③ The August jobs report landed at +162,000 against a 56,000 consensus, nearly triple the forecast. The 10-year yield jumped back to 4.79%, erasing Thursday's Waller-driven relief, and yesterday's winners — cloud, software, gold miners — gave it all back.
Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- The August employment report rewrote the morning before it started. Nonfarm payrolls came in at +162,000, nearly three times the 56,000 consensus. June was revised up to +31,000 from +20,000, July from -23,000 to +21,000 — the two-month revision alone added 55,000 jobs that the market had assumed did not exist. Average hourly earnings rose +0.3% month over month, 3.1% year over year. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.79%, putting it exactly where it was before Governor Waller's dovish signal on Thursday. One session wiped out the entire rate relief trade. Every asset that rallied on Thursday's "hold" talk sold off on Friday's data: cloud computing dropped -2.98%, gold miners -2.20%, and software -2.23%. The market is back to debating whether the next move is a hike, and Friday's print gave the hawks live ammunition.
- The S&P 500 closed -0.38% at 7,718.60, the Nasdaq -0.29% at 26,506.99, and the Dow -0.51% at 53,414.25. Underneath, 62 of 127 ETFs rose, 65 fell, and 33 still sit above all four of their moving averages. Only 3 of the 11 sector SPDRs closed green — technology (+0.70%), industrials (+0.41%), and utilities (+0.12%). Consumer discretionary was the weakest at -1.33%.
- The exception was semiconductors. SOXX gained +3.52% and SMH +2.61%, the best-performing sectors of the day among anything that trades on fundamentals rather than memes. After the Broadcom beat-and-sell on Wednesday night, chips had given up 56 points of relative strength in five sessions. Friday's bounce was not about the jobs report — it was about the sell-off being overdone.
Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, September 4, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| Global X Silver Miners (SIL) | -2.04% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) | -2.20% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) | -2.49% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| WisdomTree Cloud Computing (WCLD) | -2.98% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Roundhill Meme Stock (MEME) | +4.78% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔽 | 🔺 |
- Gold and silver miners hold the top three seats for the second consecutive session, carried by a month that has added +18% to +19% to the group. What is different today is that they are falling on the day — every miner in the top three lost ground as the jobs print pushed yields higher and gold pulled back. Cloud computing entered the top five on a 1-month RS of 96 while simultaneously posting the largest single-day decline of any ETF in the universe. That is the paradox of a rate-scare session: the strongest monthly trends are precisely the ones that give back the most when yields reverse.
Why They're Strong — Sector Issues
· Gold and silver miners (GDX · GDXJ · SIL) — All three fell on the day but hold alignment across every moving average. Gold itself slipped about -0.7% as the 10-year yield rose, and the miners moved at roughly three times the metal. The 1-month gain of +18% to +19% is built on the opposite bet from the one the jobs report just validated — miners want lower rates, and the data said rates are staying higher. If the August CPI next Friday confirms what the payrolls imply, the miners' month of dominance becomes a one-way trade that ran out of fuel.
· Cloud computing (WCLD) — Down -2.98% on the day but up +8.67% for the month, enough to push its RS to 96 and into the top five for the first time this cycle. This fund holds the mid-cap cloud names — the ones that rallied hardest on Thursday's rate relief and gave it back fastest on Friday's data. Snowflake's earnings on Wednesday drove the initial move, but Thursday's Waller signal was what made it a sector-wide event. Friday proved the signal was one day old.
1-Month RS Trend
- The 45-day trends are diverging more sharply than at any point this quarter. Cloud computing climbed from an RS of 69 to 85, software from 40 to 72, and generative AI from 19 to 56 — all three rising from the bottom half into contention. Running the other way, semiconductors fell from 39 to 24 and have yet to find a floor despite Friday's one-day bounce. Hydrogen moved from 2 to 58, one of the largest traverses on the board.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· Defense tech collapsed -58 points in five trading days, from 63 to 5, the steepest fall in the universe. Cybersecurity followed with iShares IHAK dropping -57 points and First Trust CIBR -51. Space fell -50. These are the sectors that lived on geopolitical premium and government spending expectations — when rates rise, long-duration policy bets get repriced first.
· Semiconductors continued their slide with SOXX at -15 points and the fabless fund at -12, though Friday's bounce may have marked an inflection. Software lost -23 points from 95 to 72, giving back nearly a quarter of the gains it had built over six weeks.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· Blockchain surged +78 points in five trading days, from 17 to 95, the largest rebound on the board. The onchain economy fund followed at +75. Thursday's bitcoin breakout was the catalyst, and unlike the miners' rally, blockchain held its gains through Friday — crypto trades on adoption momentum rather than rate expectations.
· Crude oil rebounded +60 points from 40 to 100 on Middle East tensions and a strong weekly gain. Utilities rose +37 and +43 points, led by nuclear power names, a signal that the market is starting to price in base-load demand from data centers regardless of where rates go.
Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by September 4 closing move — 62 of 127 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| Roundhill Meme Stock (MEME) | +4.78% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔽 | 🔺 |
| iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) | +3.52% | 49 | 🔽 | 🔽 | 🔽 |
| Roundhill Generative AI and Technology (CHAT) | +3.13% | 83 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Defiance Next Gen H2 (HDRO) | +3.08% | 77 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔽 |
| Strive U.S. Semiconductor (CHPX) | +2.87% | 68 | 🔽 | 🔽 | 🔽 |
- The rising list splits into two trades that have nothing to do with each other. The meme basket led by nearly 130 basis points, carried by GameStop and the retail names that follow it regardless of macro. Beneath that, the other four are all tech — and three of the four are semiconductors by another name. SOXX and CHPX are direct chip bets, and generative AI is their downstream consumer. Hydrogen is the outlier, rising on a fuel cell thesis that has been dormant for months.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Semiconductors (SOXX · CHPX) — SOXX gained +3.52% with an RS of 49 and every moving average still pointing down. The bounce was mechanical: the group had lost 56 points of relative strength in five sessions after Broadcom beat and fell, and the selling exhausted itself. Micron led the day within the fund at +6.87%, with TSMC +2.31% and Nvidia +1.60%. This is a dead-cat bounce until the moving averages confirm otherwise — the RS of 49 says the group is middling, not leading.
· Hydrogen (HDRO) — Up +3.08% with an RS of 77 and a +16.0% month, above its short- and mid-term averages but still below the long-term. Bloom Energy carried the day at +6.50%, and Plug Power added +5.41%. The sector has climbed from an RS of 2 to 77 over 45 days — one of the largest traverses on the board — driven by DOE hydrogen hub funding announcements and a broader rotation into energy transition names as software and cloud took over the growth leadership from AI chips.
Leading Sectors: Semiconductors, Hydrogen, AI Infrastructure
- ① The jobs report was the only story. Payrolls at +162,000 against a 56,000 consensus pushed the 10-year yield back to 4.79% and reversed every trade that had been built on Thursday’s dovish signal. Cloud computing lost -2.98%, gold miners -2.20%, and software -2.23% — the exact sectors that led on Thursday gave it all back on Friday.
- ② Semiconductors bounced into the reversal. SOXX gained +3.52% on a day the S&P fell -0.38%, the widest positive spread of any non-meme sector. The group had lost 56 points of relative strength in five sessions, and the Broadcom-driven sell-off finally found a floor. Micron’s +6.87% led the bounce, followed by Marvell +4.67% and Applied Materials +3.81%.
- ③ Hydrogen continued its quiet climb. The sector has gone from an RS of 2 to 77 in 45 days without a single headline-grabbing session — Friday’s +3.08% was the latest in a string of mid-single-digit days. Bloom Energy and Plug Power carried the basket, both trading on DOE hub contracts rather than macro. The sector is now above its short- and mid-term averages for the first time this year.
- ④ The last report was dated September 3. Its three picks, measured from that close to Friday: Robinhood -3.06%, Snowflake -3.11%, Circle -5.07%. The S&P 500 returned -0.38% over the same stretch, so all three underperformed the index by a wide margin. Thursday’s crypto-and-cloud rally was a one-day event that the jobs report took away entirely. Recorded as is.
Today’s Three Stocks — Micron · Bloom Energy · Nebius Stock Forecast
- Selection: from the 1,175 stocks held by the universe’s ETFs — RS 1D≥60 & 5D≥75 & 1M≥85, with all three moving averages aligned (▲▲▲)
Micron Technology (MU) — 1-Month RS 91: The Memory Cycle Turns on a Dime
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 99 | 89 | 91 | +18.7% | iShares Semiconductor · VanEck Semiconductor · Strive U.S. Semiconductor |
- Up +6.87% to $141.26, the best single-day gain among large-cap chips and the clearest expression of a sector that was oversold into good numbers. Micron reported fiscal Q4 in late August with revenue of $8.64 billion, up 14% sequentially, driven entirely by HBM3E shipments to Nvidia and AMD. HBM revenue more than doubled quarter over quarter and management guided Q1 revenue to $9.3 billion, above the $8.9 billion consensus. The stock had been punished alongside the rest of the semiconductor index — SOXX lost 56 points of RS in five sessions — and Friday’s bounce was the group’s first coordinated bid in a week. The Micron stock forecast hinges on whether HBM demand is a product cycle (durable) or a capex cycle (peaky). Management says capacity is sold out through 2027; the market says that is what every memory CEO says at the top.
Bloom Energy (BE) — 1-Month RS 95: Fuel Cells Find a Data Center Buyer
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 96 | 93 | 95 | +30.2% | Defiance Next Gen H2 · Global X CleanTech · First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge |
- Up +6.50% to $32.87, extending a month that has already added 30%. Bloom Energy sells solid-oxide fuel cells that convert natural gas or hydrogen into electricity on-site, and the thesis changed in August when the company announced a framework agreement to supply up to 1 GW of fuel cells to a hyperscale data center operator over five years. That deal alone would roughly triple Bloom’s current installed base. Q2 revenue came in at $401 million with a non-GAAP gross margin of 28.3%, the highest in four quarters, and management raised the full-year revenue guide to $1.65–1.75 billion. The Bloom Energy stock forecast rests on execution: the data center pipeline is real but the company has a history of missing volume targets. Watch whether the 1 GW framework converts to binding purchase orders in the September quarter.
Nebius Group (NBIS) — 1-Month RS 99: AI Infrastructure Without the Chip Premium
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 98 | 95 | 99 | +47.3% | Roundhill Generative AI · Global X Artificial Intelligence · iShares Future AI and Tech |
- Up +7.21% to $58.43, carrying a 47% month and a near-perfect RS on every horizon. Nebius is the AI infrastructure arm spun out of Yandex, operating GPU cloud clusters in Finland and expanding to Paris. Revenue tripled year over year to $117 million in Q2 on 35,000 GPU capacity, and the company holds $2.5 billion in cash after a secondary offering. The thesis is pure: Nebius rents Nvidia GPUs to AI startups and mid-cap enterprises that cannot get allocation from the hyperscalers, and charges a premium for turnkey clusters. The Nebius stock forecast depends on whether that niche survives as the hyperscalers build out their own capacity — every GPU Nvidia ships to Azure or GCP is one that does not need to be rented from Nebius. Watch whether the Paris data center opens on schedule in Q4 and whether utilization holds above 85%.
Micron · Bloom Energy · Nebius Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· Micron stock forecast — The bounce was a positioning unwind, not a thesis change. Watch whether SOXX holds above its 5-day low in the coming week. If the semiconductor index rolls over again, Micron’s 6.87% day becomes a dead-cat bounce rather than a floor.
· Bloom Energy stock forecast — The 30% month is built on one framework agreement. Watch whether the 1 GW data center deal converts to binding purchase orders in the September quarter. Volume targets have been missed before.
· Nebius stock forecast — The 47% month prices in flawless execution. Watch whether the Paris data center opens on schedule in Q4 and whether GPU utilization holds above 85%. Every hyperscaler capacity addition is a competitive headwind.
What to Watch on Next Week’s Calendar
- US August CPI, Thursday September 11, 9:30 p.m. KST. This is the number that decides whether Waller’s hold survives contact with data. Services ISM at 55.4 and payrolls at +162,000 both argue the inflation side is not cooperating. If core CPI comes in above 0.3% month over month, the hiking conversation returns and every rate-sensitive sector that rallied this week gives back more ground.
- Oracle first-quarter results, Thursday September 10, 5:00 a.m. KST. The cleanest test of the cloud-and-AI trade that took the money leaving semiconductors this week. Snowflake made the case on consumption; Oracle reports on capacity and backlog, which is the other side of the same ledger. A strong cloud print would validate the rotation into software; a miss would suggest the move was just rate relief.
- TSMC August revenue, Thursday September 10. Monthly revenue from the largest foundry is the single most reliable leading indicator for the semiconductor complex. SOXX just bounced +3.52% off a 56-point RS collapse — TSMC’s number will tell us whether that was a floor or a pause.
- Apple product event, Thursday September 10. The hardware cycle announcement lands on the same day as TSMC revenue and Oracle earnings. If iPhone 18 drives an upgrade cycle, it pulls demand through the chip stack that just lost six weeks of relative strength. US markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, so the week is four sessions long.
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