💡 Today’s US market in three lines
① Today’s three stocks: Marathon Petroleum · Helmerich & Payne · Deere — the energy and agriculture names that ran as crude oil spiked to $90.
② On September 1, the S&P 500 fell -0.71% to 7,631.47 and the Dow dropped -0.79% to 52,766.88. Only 27 of the 129 ETFs in our universe rose, and 7 of the 11 sector SPDRs finished in the red.
③ Energy owned the day. Crude surged +5.46%, refiners gained +1.69%, and oil E&P +2.03%. Gold miners dropped -3.90%, cybersecurity fell -5.03%, and the Nasdaq lost -1.03%.
Today’s Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- Tuesday, September 1 pushed the oil trade another leg higher. US forces carried out a second round of strikes on Iranian missile sites after Tehran tested a short-range missile near a carrier group in the Gulf, and WTI crude spiked intraday to $90.38 before settling at $86.57. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.79%, its highest since January 2025, and the CME FedWatch tool now prices a 68% chance of a September rate hike — up from 60% the day before.
- The S&P 500 closed -0.71% at 7,631.47, the Nasdaq -1.03% at 26,099.77, and the Dow -0.79% at 52,766.88. Underneath, 27 of 129 ETFs rose while 102 fell. Among the 11 sector SPDRs, four finished higher: Energy at +1.27%, Utilities +0.78%, Health Care +0.66%, and Consumer Staples +0.32%.
- The style gap widened again. Value lost just -0.4% while growth dropped -1.2%, and the year’s divergence keeps growing — value is up +20.6% year to date against growth’s +2.8%. Dividend stocks (SCHD -0.2%) held better than momentum (SPMO -1.1%). When yields do the driving, cash flow beats promise.
Today’s Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the ‘Sector RS (US)’ sheet — 129-ETF universe, September 1, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) | -3.90% | 99 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Silver Miners (SIL) | -3.74% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) | -4.42% | 97 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Genomics & Biotech (GNOM) | +0.53% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| WisdomTree Cloud Computing (WCLD) | -3.34% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- The top three seats still belong to the miners, but the direction has changed. GDX and GDXJ have fallen below their 20-day moving averages after two straight sessions of 4-5% losses. The monthly gains of +24-28% still hold the RS ranks above 97, yet the RRG shows them drifting from leading toward weakening. Genomics climbed into fourth on Moderna’s +9.9% day, and cloud computing held its fifth seat despite giving back -3.34%.
Why They’re Strong — Sector Issues
· Gold and silver miners (GDX · SIL · GDXJ) — RS says 99. The daily chart says trouble. Gold miners fell -3.90% on Tuesday after -5.00% on Monday, erasing roughly $9 off the GDX price in two sessions. Bullion (GLD) dropped -2.86% to $396.75, pressed by the 10-year yield at 4.79% — gold pays nothing to hold, and the opportunity cost climbs with every basis point. Silver miners fell a bit less and held their 20-day average, which gold miners did not.
· Genomics and biotech (GNOM) — RS 96 with +0.53% on a day the Nasdaq fell -1.03%. Moderna, the ETF’s largest holding at 7.3%, gained +9.9% on Phase 3 cancer vaccine results and FDA approval for updated COVID-19 shots. The monthly gain of +19.55% is broad — Twist Bioscience is up +44.2% over the period and XBI biotech rose +0.85% on Tuesday while most of the market fell.
· Crude oil (USO) — Not in the RS top five, but the sector the day actually belonged to. USO surged +5.46% and its RS rank jumped from 29 five trading days ago to 87. Over 45 trading days, oil’s RS climbed from 6 to 97 — the sharpest ascent on the trend chart. When crude moves on supply disruption rather than demand, the price moves fast and the services names lever it hardest.
1-Month RS Trend
- Five lines, five stories. USO went from an RS of 6 to 97 in 45 trading days, a near-vertical climb that started when the first Hormuz incident hit crude in mid-July. CRAK followed from 42 to 96. GDX took the opposite path — rose from 8 to 100 and held there, but the last two data points show the start of a turn. KROP oscillated between 60 and 80 before jumping to 83 on the agriculture rally. BUG peaked near 100 in early August and has slid to 74, with the steepest drop in the last five days.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· Meme stocks collapsed -49 points in five trading days, from 91 to 42, the sharpest break in the universe. European defense followed at -47 and blockchain at -44. Consumer discretionary cracked -39 points as yields pressed the rate-sensitive sectors.
· Fintech fell -30 points and the Magnificent Seven basket dropped -25. Medical devices at -26 and millennial consumer at -24 round out the list. Momentum borrowed from the growth trade, and the growth trade is under yield pressure.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· Crude oil gained +68 points in five trading days, from 29 to 97, the largest move on the board. MLP energy infrastructure followed at +50 and agriculture at +47 from 36 to 83. Natural gas added +43. Energy did not drift back — it snapped.
· Food and beverage rose +30 points and pipeline MLPs +29. Health care providers gained +27 from 26 to 53. AI semiconductors added +26 from 38 to 64 on a day the Nasdaq fell, which suggests some decoupling from the broad tech selloff.
Today’s Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by September 1 closing move — 27 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the ‘Sector RS (US)’ sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| US Oil Fund (USO) | +5.46% | 87 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X AgTech (KROP) | +2.28% | 71 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| First Trust Natural Gas (FCG) | +2.12% | 89 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Oil & Gas E&P (IEO) | +2.03% | 92 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| SPDR Oil & Gas E&P (XOP) | +1.99% | 90 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- All five sit above their short-, mid-, and long-term moving averages. Four are energy — crude, natural gas, and the companies that find it and process it. The fifth is agriculture, and it moved on the same input: diesel and fertilizer both start with energy. Crude at $86-90 a barrel lifts these names through revenue, not through multiple expansion.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Crude and oil services (USO · IEO · XOP · FCG) — The second round of US strikes on Iranian sites kept the Hormuz chokepoint risk alive. WTI crude hit $90.38 intraday and settled at $86.57. Refiners (CRAK +1.69%) and exploration names (IEO +2.03%) move with the barrel price, and oil services carry the most operating leverage — Helmerich & Payne and Tidewater both gained more than 3%.
· Agriculture (KROP +2.28% · MOO +1.69%) — Diesel is the first input line for farming, and when crude moves this hard, agriculture stocks follow. Deere’s Q3 earnings beat on August 27 added a second catalyst: the CEO called 2026 the bottom of the farm equipment cycle and raised guidance. CNH Industrial gained +5.7%.
Leading Sectors: Energy, Gold Miners, Agriculture
- ① The oil trade extended for a second day. Crude rose +5.46% on Tuesday after +2.84% on Monday, and the Strait of Hormuz is now the price-setter for global energy. Roughly a fifth of seaborne oil passes through it, and the US-Iran exchange shows no sign of de-escalating. Energy is up +43% year to date, leading all eleven sectors.
- ② Gold miners are bending. GDX fell -3.90% on Tuesday and -5.00% on Monday, losing roughly $9 in two sessions. The monthly gain of +24.48% still holds and the RS rank is still 99, but the 10-year yield at 4.79% is a direct headwind. Gold pays nothing to hold. The RRG shows the miners moving from leading toward weakening — high level, falling momentum.
- ③ Agriculture found its footing through two channels — crude oil lifting the input cost chain, which lifts the revenue of the companies selling those inputs, and Deere’s earnings beat raising confidence that the farm cycle has bottomed. KROP gained +2.28% and Deere +3.23%.
- ④ The last report was dated August 31. Its three picks, measured from that close to Tuesday: Salesforce +0.22%, ServiceNow -3.44%, CrowdStrike -6.90%. The S&P 500 returned -0.71% over the same stretch. Salesforce beat the index; the other two did not. The software call was right through August and wrong on the first day of September, when rising yields hit the growth names hardest. One win, two losses against the benchmark. Recorded as is.
Today’s Three Stocks — Marathon Petroleum · Helmerich & Payne · Deere Stock Forecast
- Selection: from the 1,152 stocks held by the universe’s 124 ETFs — RS 1D≥60 & 5D≥75 & 1M≥85, with all three moving averages aligned (▲▲▲)
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — 1-Month RS 93: Q2 EPS of $17.73 Against a $14.27 Estimate
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 95 | 95 | 93 | +21.0% | iShares Oil & Gas E&P · VanEck Oil Refiners · SPDR Energy |
- Up +2.59% to $383.00, another leg in a rally that has Marathon up +60% year to date. The Q2 quarter was a blowout: revenue of $52.34 billion against a $40.87 billion consensus, and adjusted EPS of $17.73 against the street’s $14.27. That gap reflects how the Strait of Hormuz reshaped global refining margins — Marathon runs the largest US refining system by throughput capacity, and when crude spikes on supply disruption, the crack spread widens before product prices catch up. Management bought back $3.2 billion of stock in the quarter. The Marathon Petroleum stock forecast now rests on whether Hormuz tensions keep the crack spread elevated or whether OPEC’s September output increase normalizes it.
Helmerich & Payne (HP) — 1-Month RS 97: Largest US Land Driller Breaks Resistance
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 100 | 98 | 97 | +33.7% | VanEck Oil Services · iShares Oil Equipment |
- Up +6.03% to $46.21, breaking above the $42.60 level that had capped the stock since 2022. Helmerich controls over 20% of the US land drilling market and over 40% of the super-spec segment, and when crude goes above $85 the rigs start working. Q3 fiscal 2026 showed narrowing international losses and accelerating North America margins, with total firm contract backlog at $5.4 billion. The stock gained +33.7% in a month on crude price, backlog visibility, and a clearing of leadership transitions. The Helmerich & Payne stock forecast depends on whether crude stays above $85, the level at which marginal US wells become profitable.
Deere (DE) — 1-Month RS 87: Q3 Beat, CEO Calls the Cycle Bottom
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 98 | 92 | 87 | +14.1% | Global X AgTech · VanEck Agribusiness |
- Up +3.23% to $676.08. Deere’s Q3 fiscal 2026 (reported August 27) beat estimates: EPS of $5.10 against the $4.69 consensus and revenue of $12.61 billion against $10.81 billion expected. Management raised full-year net income guidance to $4.75-5.00 billion. CEO John May said the company believes 2026 marks the bottom of the farm equipment cycle. Construction and forestry sales rose +18% year over year, offsetting pressure in agriculture where large equipment sales are still down 15-20%. The Deere stock forecast hinges on whether the cycle-bottom call holds — if it does, the current valuation has room to re-rate as agriculture orders recover.
Marathon Petroleum · Helmerich & Payne · Deere Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· Marathon Petroleum stock forecast — Refining margins widened on geopolitical supply disruption, not organic demand. Watch whether the crack spread holds above $30 per barrel through October. If OPEC’s September output increase brings more barrels and Iran tensions ease, the spread compresses and the earnings run slows.
· Helmerich & Payne stock forecast — The stock broke $42.60 resistance on a crude spike. Watch whether North America rig count holds above 600. If crude falls below $80, marginal wells go offline and the rig count follows.
· Deere stock forecast — The cycle-bottom call is the entire thesis. Watch whether Q4 large agriculture equipment orders turn positive year over year. Construction carried this quarter; recovery needs agriculture to show up.
What to Watch on Next Week’s Calendar
- Broadcom Q3 earnings, Wednesday September 2 after the US close (Thursday 6:00 a.m. KST). The AI semiconductor rebound signals in this report — AI chips and quantum +26 points over five days — are a bet on infrastructure spending reaccelerating. Broadcom’s custom-silicon commentary is the single largest test of that bet. Consensus expects revenue of $29.43 billion.
- US August jobs report, Friday September 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET (Friday 9:30 p.m. KST). Rate hike probability stands at 68%. A hot payroll number pushes it higher and pressures every rate-sensitive sector on the board, including the gold miners still sitting at the top of the RS table. A soft number gives the metals their footing back.
- OPEC+ review meeting, Saturday September 6. The group already approved a 188,000 bpd output increase for September, completing the rollback of voluntary cuts. The question is whether they pause for Q4 given Middle East supply uncertainty. That decision directly sets whether crude stays near $90 or returns toward $80.
- Labor Day, Monday September 7 — US markets closed. A shortened trading week follows, and lower volume can amplify moves in either direction.
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