💡 Today's US market in three lines
① Today's three stocks: Palo Alto Networks · Datadog · PBF Energy — a security company at a one-year closing high, a cloud-monitoring company up +15.53% in September, and a refiner that has almost tripled this year.
② On September 30, the S&P 500 slipped -0.25% to 7,651.54 and the Dow lost -0.86%, while the Nasdaq added +0.24%. Only 36 of the 129 ETFs in our universe closed higher, and 10 of the 11 sector SPDRs fell.
③ Cybersecurity rose +1.63% and oil +1.61%, while crypto-linked stocks fell -2.62% and consumer staples -1.53%.
Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- A soft inflation report lifted stocks in the morning. Bond yields took the gains back in the last hour. Only technology held on.
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,651.54, down -0.25% or 19.30 points. The Dow fell -0.86%, or 443.87 points, to 50,906.05. The Nasdaq rose +0.24% to 26,861.06, the only major index to finish higher. The S&P 500 had been up nearly 0.7% during the session. The Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ) gained +0.25%, while the equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) fell -0.71% and the Russell 2000 fund (IWM) -0.40%. Growth held flat at -0.03% for the Russell 1000 Growth fund (IWF), and value fell -0.42% for the Russell 1000 Value fund (IWD).
- Breadth was weak: only 36 of the 129 funds in our universe closed higher, 92 closed lower, and one did not trade. Technology (+0.64%) was the only sector SPDR to rise. Consumer staples (-1.53%), health care (-1.35%), and industrials (-1.27%) fell the most.
- The August PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.4% from a year earlier against forecasts of 3.7%. Traders cut their bets on an October rate hike. Then the ADP report showed 90,000 private jobs added in September, above forecasts, and the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 5.29%. The 30-year yield rose to 5.64%. September is now in the books. Measured from the August 31 close, the S&P 500 lost -0.45% for the month, the Dow -4.29%, and the Nasdaq gained +1.86%.
Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, September 30, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| Global X Cybersecurity (BUG) | +1.63% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | +1.61% | 99 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity (CIBR) | +1.10% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) | +0.21% | 98 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Fabless Semiconductor (SMHX) | +0.45% | 97 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- All five leaders rose on a day when 92 funds fell. Cybersecurity and oil did the most work. Chips edged higher ahead of Micron's results. Four of the five trade above all three moving averages. The oil fund slipped under its 1-month average after a volatile week, so its short-term trend is the one to watch.
Why They're Strong — Sector Issues
· Cybersecurity (BUG · CIBR · IHAK) — Global X's cybersecurity fund rose +1.63%, iShares' fund +1.42%, and First Trust's fund +1.10%. Qualys gained +4.96%, Tenable +4.00%, Palo Alto Networks +2.29%, and Okta +2.06%. CrowdStrike and Fortinet both closed at one-year highs. The group has now recovered from last Friday's sell-off. Security spending tends to hold up when budgets tighten, and a lower chance of a rate hike helped the higher-valued names. BUG is still -1.99% over five sessions.
· Oil (USO) — The oil fund rose +1.61%, and WTI crude futures ended near $90 a barrel. Tension over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz keeps a floor under prices, even as Gulf exports have climbed back toward pre-war levels. Refiners did better than producers. Par Pacific rose +4.23%, Delek +3.84%, and PBF Energy +2.30%, while Chevron was flat. USO is up +8.95% over one month, though it is down -2.13% over five sessions.
· Chips (SOXX · SMHX · SMH) — The iShares semiconductor fund rose +0.21%, fabless chips +0.45%, and VanEck's semiconductor fund +0.35%. Nvidia added +0.51%, and Micron closed flat ahead of its report. After the close, Micron posted fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion, against $11.32 billion a year earlier, and guided to about $61.5 billion for the current quarter. Thursday's session will show how the group reads those numbers. SOXX is up +11.27% over one month, the most in our universe.
1-Month RS Trend
- The 45-day chart tracks cloud software, oil refiners, solar, digital-asset stocks, and consumer staples. The Global X cloud fund (CLOU) topped out at 100 on August 4, fell to 40 on September 9, and has climbed back to 72. Oil refiners (CRAK) have stayed above 80 for most of September and sit at 89. Solar (TAN) jumped from 8 to 26 in one day. Digital-asset stocks (DAPP) went from 2 on August 19 to 98 on September 9 and are now at 63. Consumer staples (XLP) started the window at 78 and have fallen to 46.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· Digital-asset stocks (DAPP) lost -28 points in five trading days, from 91 to 63. Agtech (KROP) dropped -22 points, agribusiness (MOO) -20, Global X's blockchain fund (BKCH) -19, and natural gas (UNG) -17.
· Crypto-linked funds took most of the damage again. BKCH is down -10.46% over five sessions and DAPP -9.93%. Bitcoin barely moved on Wednesday, but Robinhood fell -3.20% and Coinbase -1.90%. Two cloud and software funds show bigger drops in our five-day calculation, but the sheet ranks do not confirm them, so they are left out.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· SPDR retail (XRT) rebounded +30 points in five sessions, from 22 to 52. Homebuilders (XHB) gained +23 points, online retail (IBUY) +22, residential REITs (REZ) +22, and e-commerce (EBIZ) +18.
· These funds barely moved in price. XRT is up +0.06% over five sessions, and XHB is down -1.09%. They rose in the ranking because crypto, metals, and farm funds fell faster. Retail and housing both depend on rates, so the next leg needs yields to stop rising.
Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by September 30 closing move — 36 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| WisdomTree Cloud Computing (WCLD) | +1.73% | 82 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Cybersecurity (BUG) | +1.63% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | +1.61% | 99 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Cybersecurity and Tech (IHAK) | +1.42% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Cloud Computing (CLOU) | +1.28% | 85 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- Software filled four of the five spots. Two cloud funds and two security funds made the list, plus oil. No gain topped 2%. Cloud is the part that stands out. WCLD is still down -5.89% over one month, so this was a bounce inside a pullback, not a new trend yet.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Cloud software (WCLD · CLOU · IGV) — WisdomTree's cloud fund rose +1.73%, Global X's cloud fund +1.28%, and iShares' software fund +1.20%. Synopsys gained +4.78%, HubSpot +3.70%, ServiceNow +3.13%, Snowflake +2.80%, and Datadog +1.97%. Software stocks trade on profits expected years out, so they gain the most when rate-hike odds fall. The PCE report did that on Wednesday morning. Most of the group has lagged for a month. IGV is down -3.18% over one month.
Leading Sectors: Cybersecurity, Cloud Software, Oil
- ① The PCE report moved the market for most of the session. Inflation came in below forecasts, and odds of an October hike fell. Then the 10-year yield climbed back to 5.29%, and stocks gave up their gains in the final hour. Friday's jobs report is the next test.
- ② Money moved into software and out of defensive stocks. Walmart fell -2.70%, Procter & Gamble -2.05%, and Eli Lilly -2.33%. Staples and health care had been the places to hide on Monday. By Wednesday, investors were selling them while buying cloud and security names.
- ③ Oil stayed strong without a new shock. USO rose +1.61% and refiners did better than crude. As long as fuel supply stays tight, refiners keep earning wide margins, and that shows up in PBF's numbers below.
- ④ The last report covered the September 28 close. Its three picks, measured from that close to Wednesday's: Okta +3.43%, Ligand -0.55%, and Viatris -3.01%. The S&P 500 fell -0.42% over the same two sessions. Okta beat the index. Ligand and Viatris trailed it, as drug stocks gave back Monday's gains. Recorded as is.
Today's Three Stocks — Palo Alto Networks · Datadog · PBF Energy Stock Forecast
- Selection: from the 1,146 stocks held by the universe's ETFs — RS 1D≥60 & 5D≥75 & 1M≥85, with all three moving averages aligned (▲▲▲)
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) — 1-Month RS 85: A One-Year Closing High
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 94 | 81 | 85 | +4.0% | iShares Expanded Tech-Software · First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity · Global X Cybersecurity |
- Up +2.29% to $397.31, its highest close in a year, and +1.02% over five sessions. Palo Alto Networks sells firewalls, cloud security, and security operations software, and it makes up 7.7% to 9.6% of three funds in our universe. On September 29, BTIG raised its price target to $425 from $404. For the fiscal year ended July 31, revenue rose +24.5% to $11.48 billion from $9.22 billion, and fourth-quarter revenue reached about $3.41 billion. Profit went the other way. Operating income fell to $695 million from $1.243 billion, and net income to $307 million from $1.134 billion. The company guided to fiscal 2027 revenue of $14.10–14.20 billion. The stock is up about 116% this year. The Palo Alto Networks stock forecast depends on whether profit starts to catch up with revenue.
Datadog (DDOG) — 1-Month RS 97: Up 15% in September
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 93 | 99 | 97 | +15.5% | Global X Cloud Computing · iShares Expanded Tech-Software · First Trust Dow Jones Internet |
- Up +1.97% to $273.85, and +8.89% over five sessions. Datadog sells monitoring tools that show companies how their cloud systems and AI applications are running. There was no company news on Wednesday. The stock rose with the rest of cloud software, after gaining +4.36% on September 25. For the quarter ended June 30, revenue rose +35.6% to $1.121 billion from $826.8 million. Operating income was $5.5 million against a loss of $35.5 million a year earlier, and net income rose to $44.6 million from $2.6 million. The stock is up about 101% this year and sits 5.0% below its one-year closing high of $288.15. The Datadog stock forecast rests on whether growth stays above 30% as profit margins stay thin.
PBF Energy (PBF) — 1-Month RS 87: Refining Margins Pay Off
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 94 | 99 | 87 | +5.4% | VanEck Oil Refiners · SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
- Up +2.30% to $76.96, and +9.21% over five sessions. PBF Energy buys crude oil and turns it into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel at refineries on the East Coast, in the Midwest, on the Gulf Coast, and in California. It earns the gap between crude and fuel prices. That gap widened after the conflict with Iran disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz. For the quarter ended June 30, revenue rose +56.2% to $11.68 billion from $7.48 billion. Operating income was $1.27 billion against $43 million a year earlier, and net income was $906.4 million, or $7.54 a share, against a small loss. The stock is up about 184% this year and sits 1.7% below its September 11 closing high of $78.30. The company reports third-quarter results on October 29. The PBF Energy stock forecast depends on how long those margins stay this wide.
Palo Alto Networks · Datadog · PBF Energy Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· Palo Alto Networks stock forecast — The stock closed at a one-year high. Watch whether it holds above $397 through the jobs report. A close back under $392, Monday's level, would erase this week's gain.
· Datadog stock forecast — The stock is 5.0% below its August high. Watch whether it closes above $288.15. A new high would confirm the September run.
· PBF Energy stock forecast — The stock is 1.7% below its September high. Watch whether refining margins hold into the October 29 report. Any easing of Gulf supply would narrow them fast.
What to Watch on Next Week's Calendar
- September ISM manufacturing index, Thursday October 1 (11:00 p.m. KST). The first read on factory activity after the PCE report. A strong number would add to the case for higher rates and put pressure on the software rebound.
- September jobs report, Friday October 2 (9:30 p.m. KST). ADP already showed 90,000 private jobs. A strong official report would push the 10-year yield above 5.29% and bring the October hike back into play. A weak one would help cloud software most.
- OPEC+ meeting, Sunday October 4. Oil producers set their supply plans for the coming months. USO is up +8.95% over one month and refiners are near their highs, so any change in output targets matters for both.
- 10-year Treasury auction and FOMC minutes, Thursday October 8 (2:00 a.m. and 3:00 a.m. KST). The auction shows how much demand there is at yields near 5.3%. The minutes from the September meeting show how many officials want to keep raising rates.
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