💡 Today's US market in three lines
① Today's three stocks: Synopsys · Marathon Petroleum · Lam Research — a chip-design software maker that jumped on its 2027 outlook, a refiner 1.1% below its one-year closing high, and an equipment maker in line for Micron's spending.
② On October 1, the S&P 500 rose +0.19% to 7,666.45, and the Dow and the Nasdaq each added +0.04%. 71 of the 129 ETFs in our universe closed higher, and 5 of the 11 sector SPDRs rose.
③ Oil producers rose +3.33% and chips +1.35%, while genomics fell -2.41% and biotech -2.17%.
Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- Stocks slipped in the morning and recovered by the close. Bond yields set the direction both times. Oil and chips did the lifting.
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,666.45, up +0.19% or 14.91 points. The Dow rose +0.04%, or 20.51 points, to 50,926.56. The Nasdaq gained +0.04% to 26,871.60. The Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ) rose +0.31%, the equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) +0.47%, and the Russell 2000 fund (IWM) +0.41%. Growth beat value. The Russell 1000 Growth fund (IWF) gained +0.38% and the Russell 1000 Value fund (IWD) +0.13%.
- Breadth was solid: 71 of the 129 funds in our universe closed higher, 57 closed lower, and one did not trade. Energy (+1.95%) led the sector SPDRs, followed by technology (+1.05%) and industrials (+0.99%). Health care (-1.32%) fell the most, then communication services (-0.93%).
- The September ISM manufacturing index came in at 54.5, a sign of expansion. Its prices-paid gauge jumped 6.8 points to 77.9, well above the 72 economists expected. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.30% during the session, a fresh multidecade high, then eased to 5.24% at the close. The 30-year yield slipped to 5.60%. Weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000. Stocks drifted lower on the price data and came back as yields came off the high.
Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, October 1, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | +2.99% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) | +1.35% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Cybersecurity (BUG) | +0.65% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Fabless Semiconductor (SMHX) | +1.88% | 98 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Semiconductor (SMH) | +1.45% | 97 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- All five leaders rose. Oil gained the most at +2.99%, and the three chip funds added between +1.35% and +1.88%. Cybersecurity lagged at +0.65%. All five trade above all three moving averages. SOXX is up +15.19% over one month, second in our universe only to the meme-stock fund.
Why They're Strong — Sector Issues
· Oil (USO) — The oil fund rose +2.99%, and WTI crude futures gained +2.75% to $92.91 a barrel. China told its refiners to stop shipping fuel to destinations other than Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, and PetroChina cancelled several October gasoline and jet fuel cargoes. That takes supply out of a fuel market already tight since the conflict with Iran. Refiners outside China gained the most. PBF Energy rose +6.99%, Marathon Petroleum +6.25%, and Valero +5.38%. USO is still down -2.01% over five sessions.
· Chips (SOXX · SMHX · SMH) — The iShares semiconductor fund rose +1.35%, fabless chips +1.88%, and VanEck's semiconductor fund +1.45%. Micron gained +3.03% to $1,097.39 after its fiscal fourth-quarter report. Revenue reached $54.23 billion, and the company guided to about $61.5 billion for the current quarter. It also plans about $25 billion of capital spending in the first half of fiscal 2027. Equipment makers sell into that budget. Applied Materials rose +3.50%, Lam Research +3.53%, and KLA +2.77%. Optical names moved more: Coherent jumped +10.90% and Lumentum +7.67%. Broadcom fell -2.15%.
· Cybersecurity (BUG · CIBR · IHAK) — Global X's cybersecurity fund rose +0.65%, First Trust's fund +0.67%, and iShares' fund +1.02%. CrowdStrike (+0.51%) and Okta (+1.68%) both closed at one-year highs. Palo Alto Networks slipped -0.27% after Wednesday's high, and Zscaler fell -0.32%. The group held its ground without leading. BUG is up +11.89% over one month, though it is down -0.36% over five sessions.
1-Month RS Trend
- The 45-day chart tracks oil producers, generative AI, US manufacturing, biotech, and natural gas. The iShares oil and gas producers fund (IEO) stayed between 94 and 98 through mid-September, dropped to 51 on September 22, and sits at 60. Roundhill's generative AI fund (CHAT) fell to 17 on September 14 and has climbed back to 95. The US manufacturing fund (MADE) rose from 5 on September 3 to 70. SPDR biotech (XBI) went from 63 to 38 in one day. Natural gas (UNG) peaked at 98 on September 24 and has halved to 49.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· Natural gas (UNG) lost -49 points in five trading days, from 98 to 49. Alerian's pipeline fund (AMLP) dropped -33 points, and iShares oil and gas producers (IEO) -18.
· UNG is down -12.03% over five sessions, and pipeline funds fell with gas. IEO is the odd one. It rose +3.33% on Thursday, but it is up only +1.04% over five sessions while chips kept climbing. Several oil-service, gas-producer, and farm funds show bigger drops in our five-day calculation, but the sheet ranks do not confirm them, so they are left out.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· iShares transportation (IYT) rebounded +30 points in five sessions, from 15 to 45. Homebuilders (ITB) gained +26 points, online retail (IBUY) +21, SPDR retail (XRT) +17, and e-commerce (EBIZ) +16.
· These funds barely moved in price. IYT is up +0.15% over five sessions, and ITB is down -1.06%. They climbed the ranking because gas, pipeline, and farm funds fell faster. Housing and retail need lower yields, so Thursday's retreat from 5.30% helps only if it lasts.
Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by October 1 closing move — 71 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| iShares Oil & Gas E&P (IEO) | +3.33% | 81 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | +2.99% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| SPDR Oil & Gas E&P (XOP) | +2.77% | 77 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Roundhill Meme Stock (MEME) | +2.70% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| WisdomTree Cloud Computing (WCLD) | +2.17% | 84 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- Oil took three of the five spots. Producers led as crude climbed. The meme-stock fund rose on its optical-chip holdings, Lumentum and Coherent, while GameStop fell -2.19%. WisdomTree's cloud fund rounded out the list as HubSpot gained +6.08% and Salesforce +3.10%. IEO and XOP are still below their 1-month averages, so this was a bounce inside a pullback.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Oil and gas producers (IEO · XOP · XLE) — iShares' producers fund rose +3.33%, SPDR's producers fund +2.77%, and the energy SPDR +1.95%. Occidental gained +4.56%, APA +4.33%, EOG +2.58%, and ConocoPhillips +1.53%. Exxon added only +0.66%. IEO also holds refiners, and Marathon Petroleum alone makes up 12.6% of the fund, which helped it beat XOP. IEO is still down -2.28% over one month.
Leading Sectors: Oil, Chips, Cybersecurity
- ① Yields moved the market again. The ISM price gauge pushed the 10-year to 5.30% in the morning, and stocks fell. When it eased to 5.24%, they recovered. Friday's jobs report is the next test.
- ② Money left health care. Amgen fell -3.38%, Regeneron -3.09%, and Vertex -3.07%. We found no single headline behind the drop. The cash went to chips and oil, the two groups with fresh news.
- ③ China's export halt put refiners ahead of crude. WTI rose +2.75%, but Marathon, Valero, and PBF each gained more than +5%. Refiners earn the gap between crude and fuel prices. That gap widens when fuel gets scarce.
- ④ The last report covered the September 30 close. Its three picks, measured from that close to Thursday's: PBF Energy +6.99%, Datadog +0.95%, and Palo Alto Networks -0.27%. The S&P 500 rose +0.19% over the same session. PBF and Datadog beat the index, and Palo Alto trailed it. Recorded as is.
Today's Three Stocks — Synopsys · Marathon Petroleum · Lam Research Stock Forecast
- Selection: from the 1,152 stocks held by the universe's ETFs — RS 1D≥60 & 5D≥75 & 1M≥85, with all three moving averages aligned (▲▲▲)
Synopsys (SNPS) — 1-Month RS 95: A 2027 Outlook Above Forecasts
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 100 | 100 | 95 | +18.3% | VanEck Fabless Semiconductor · iShares Expanded Tech-Software · VanEck Semiconductor |
- Up +12.78% to $490.54, and +15.45% over five sessions. Synopsys sells the software engineers use to design and test chips, and it bought simulation-software maker Ansys in July 2025. At its investor day on Thursday, it guided fiscal 2027 revenue up as much as +15% to about $11.2 billion, above analyst forecasts. It also announced a chip-design deal with Amazon Web Services worth more than $1 billion, a partnership with OpenAI, and plans to buy back about $1 billion of shares. KeyBanc raised its price target to $605 from $600. For the quarter ended July 31, revenue rose +42.4% to $2.477 billion from $1.740 billion, with Ansys counted for the full quarter this time. Operating income rose to $357.5 million from $165.3 million, and net income to $545.8 million from $242.5 million. The stock is up only about 4% this year and sits 8.2% below its May 26 closing high of $534.56. The Synopsys stock forecast depends on whether the 2027 targets survive the next two quarterly reports.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — 1-Month RS 89: Fuel Gets Scarcer
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 99 | 97 | 89 | +9.7% | iShares Oil & Gas E&P · VanEck Oil Refiners · Energy Select Sector SPDR |
- Up +6.25% to $420.15, and +7.47% over five sessions. Marathon Petroleum is one of the largest US refiners, with plants on the Gulf Coast, in the Midwest, and on the West Coast, and it controls pipeline operator MPLX. China's halt means fewer diesel and gasoline cargoes in Asia, and refiners elsewhere can sell into that gap. For the quarter ended June 30, revenue rose +53.8% to $51.99 billion from $33.80 billion. Operating income was $7.32 billion against $2.20 billion a year earlier. Net income was $5.14 billion, or $17.73 a share, against $1.22 billion, or $3.96. The stock is up about 158% this year and sits 1.1% below its September 18 closing high of $424.89. The Marathon Petroleum stock forecast depends on how long China keeps its fuel at home.
Lam Research (LRCX) — 1-Month RS 94: Micron's Spending Plan
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 94 | 98 | 94 | +17.2% | VanEck Semiconductor · iShares Semiconductor · Technology Select Sector SPDR |
- Up +3.53% to $340.10, and +10.72% over five sessions. Lam Research makes the etch and deposition machines that build up the layers of a chip, and memory makers are among its biggest customers. Micron plans about $11.5 billion of capital spending this quarter and about $25 billion over the first half of fiscal 2027. For the fiscal year ended June 28, Lam's revenue rose +26.0% to $23.23 billion from $18.44 billion. Operating income rose to $8.20 billion from $5.90 billion, and net income to $7.27 billion, or $5.76 a share, from $5.36 billion, or $4.15. Fourth-quarter revenue was about $6.72 billion, up +30.0% from a year earlier. The stock is up about 99% this year but sits 21.5% below its June 30 closing high of $433.33. The Lam Research stock forecast rests on whether memory budgets turn into orders this quarter.
Synopsys · Marathon Petroleum · Lam Research Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· Synopsys stock forecast — The stock jumped on its investor day. Watch whether it holds above $490 in the sessions after the event. A close back under $434.94, Wednesday's level, would erase the gain.
· Marathon Petroleum stock forecast — The stock is 1.1% below its September high. Watch whether it closes above $424.89. The OPEC+ meeting and any easing of China's export halt are the two risks.
· Lam Research stock forecast — The stock is still 21.5% below its June high. Watch whether Samsung's preliminary results on October 8 confirm memory spending. A strong read would back up Micron's plan.
What to Watch on Next Week's Calendar
- September jobs report, Friday October 2 (9:30 p.m. KST). Jobless claims fell to 197,000 and the ISM price gauge jumped to 77.9. A strong payroll number would push the 10-year back toward 5.30% and test chips and software near their highs.
- OPEC+ meeting, Sunday October 4. Producers set supply plans with WTI at $92.91 and China holding its fuel at home. Higher output would cool crude, but refiners care more about fuel supply than crude prices.
- 10-year Treasury auction and FOMC minutes, Thursday October 8 (2:00 a.m. and 3:00 a.m. KST). The auction shows how much demand there is at yields near 5.24%. The minutes from the September meeting show how many officials want to keep raising rates.
- Samsung Electronics preliminary third-quarter results and TSMC September sales, Thursday October 8. Both are early reads on memory and chip demand. They will show whether Micron's numbers hold across the industry, which matters for Lam Research and the chip funds.
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