💡 Today's US market in three lines
① Today's three stocks: Teradyne · Hewlett Packard Enterprise · MACOM — a chip-test maker that jumped on new memory testers, a networking and server company at a one-year closing high, and a data-center chip supplier climbing back from its spring slide.
② On October 2, the S&P 500 rose +0.73% to 7,722.72, the Nasdaq +1.19%, and the Dow +0.49%. 103 of the 129 ETFs in our universe closed higher, and 10 of the 11 sector SPDRs rose.
③ Space stocks rose +3.91% and energy storage +3.40%, while oil fell -1.77% and weight-loss drug stocks -0.85%.
Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- A weak jobs report took an October rate hike off the table. Tech led the rally. Oil went the other way.
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,722.72, up +0.73% or 56.27 points. The Nasdaq gained +1.19%, or 319.26 points, to 27,190.86. The Dow rose +0.49%, or 250.40 points, to 51,176.96. The Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ) rose +1.02%, the Russell 2000 fund (IWM) +0.90%, and the equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) +0.35%. Growth beat value again. The Russell 1000 Growth fund (IWF) gained +1.07% and the Russell 1000 Value fund (IWD) +0.46%.
- Breadth was broad: 103 of the 129 funds in our universe closed higher and 26 closed lower. Consumer discretionary (+1.13%) led the sector SPDRs, helped by Tesla's +4.65% gain on third-quarter deliveries. Technology (+1.01%) and industrials (+0.78%) followed. Health care was the only sector to slip, by -0.01%. Energy added just +0.19%.
- Employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, against the 84,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and August was revised down to 133,000. The 10-year Treasury yield first fell to about 5.18%. It then turned around and closed at 5.28%, up four basis points. Stocks held their gains anyway. Traders cut the odds of an October hike to about 17% on CME FedWatch, from about 36% a week earlier.
Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, October 2, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | -1.77% | 100 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) | +2.18% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Roundhill Meme Stock (MEME) | +2.48% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X AI Semiconductor & Quantum (CHPX) | +1.95% | 98 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Fabless Semiconductor (SMHX) | +2.38% | 97 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- Four of the five leaders rose, each by about 2%. Oil was the exception at -1.77%, and it slipped below its 1-month average. It still holds the top rank on a +4.41% one-month gain. The meme-stock fund is up +19.40% over one month, the best in our universe, and SOXX is second at +17.44%.
Why They're Strong — Sector Issues
· Oil (USO) — The oil fund fell -1.77%, and WTI crude futures lost -1.73% to $91.26 a barrel. The Group of Seven agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks over four months, coordinated by the International Energy Agency. A large share of the diesel is due within the first 20 days. Washington had pushed for the release to bring fuel prices down. Refiners barely moved after Thursday's surge. Marathon Petroleum added +0.52% and VanEck's refiners fund +0.99%. USO is down -0.65% over five sessions.
· Chips (SOXX · CHPX · SMHX) — The iShares semiconductor fund rose +2.18%, Global X's AI chip fund +1.95%, and fabless chips +2.38%. AMD gained +2.95% to a one-year closing high of $633.91. Broadcom rose +3.35%, TSMC +2.96%, and Nvidia +1.34% after trading at a record during the session. Test and equipment makers did better. Teradyne jumped +8.00% and KLA +3.27%. Micron slipped -2.05%. Synaptics surged +14.08% after ON Semiconductor switched its bid to all cash at $123 a share. Storage was the weak spot. Seagate fell -10.21% and Western Digital -10.22% on reports that Toshiba plans to add hard-drive capacity.
· Meme stocks (MEME) — Roundhill's meme-stock fund rose +2.48%. Despite the name, its top holdings now lean toward AI hardware. Applied Optoelectronics, its largest holding, gained +7.71%. Rocket Lab rose +4.91%, Super Micro Computer +4.22%, and Bloom Energy +4.17%. Astera Labs fell -1.71%. The fund is up +1.78% over five sessions.
1-Month RS Trend
- The 45-day chart tracks energy storage, natural gas, solar, cloud software, and GLP-1 drug makers. The iShares energy storage fund (IBAT) sat at 4 on August 3 and has climbed to 81, its high for the period. Natural gas (UNG) went from 1 in early August to 98 on September 24, then fell back to 57. Invesco's solar fund (TAN) peaked at 41 on August 27 and sits at 26. WisdomTree's cloud fund (WCLD) dropped from 99 to 29 on September 28 and has bounced to 70. Roundhill's GLP-1 fund (OZEM) reached 75 on September 2 and is down to 11.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· No breakdown passed our check this week. Our five-day calculation flags farm, natural gas, oil, and refiner funds. The sheet ranks still hold them high, though. USO sits at 100 and VanEck's refiners fund at 96, so the two sources disagree.
· Oil is the one to watch. If crude keeps falling as reserve barrels arrive, the sheet ranks should start to drop too.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· iShares transportation (IYT) rebounded +40 points in five sessions, from 13 to 53. Invesco's leisure and entertainment fund (PEJ) gained +32 points, Range's nuclear fund (NUKZ) +22, Invesco's solar fund (TAN) +20, and SPDR aerospace and defense (XAR) +20.
· Prices barely moved. IYT is up +1.07% over five sessions, and XAR is down -2.66%. These funds climbed the ranking because oil, gas, and farm funds fell faster. Transports gain most from cheaper fuel, so the G7 release gives IYT a real reason to keep going.
Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by October 2 closing move — 103 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| Global X Space Tech (ORBX) | +3.91% | 78 | 🔺 | 🔽 | 🔽 |
| iShares Energy Storage & Materials (IBAT) | +3.40% | 83 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | +3.05% | 78 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔽 |
| Global X Copper Miners (COPX) | +3.01% | 15 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Hydrogen (HYDR) | +2.93% | 84 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- None of the five came from the leaders' list. Space led as SpaceX, 22.6% of ORBX, rose +7.35%. Copper miners bounced with Freeport-McMoRan up +3.98%, but COPX ranks only 15 and remains below its 1-month average. Natural gas rose +3.05% after a -5.93% drop over five sessions. IBAT and HYDR trade above all three averages.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Energy storage and hydrogen (IBAT · HYDR) — iShares' energy storage fund rose +3.40%, and Global X's hydrogen fund +2.93%. Bloom Energy, the largest holding in both funds, gained +4.17%. Its fuel-cell systems power data centers. FuelCell Energy jumped +11.47%, and Plug Power added +0.53%. Lower odds of a rate hike help capital-heavy power projects. IBAT is up +3.23% over five sessions and +4.40% over one month.
Leading Sectors: Chips, Space, Energy Storage
- ① The jobs report changed the rate outlook. Hiring slowed to 29,000 and unemployment rose. A week ago, traders saw a 36% chance of an October hike. Now they see about 17%. Yields came back by the close, but tech stocks held their gains.
- ② The money stayed in hardware. Chips, optical parts, servers, and test equipment all rose. Cloud software did not follow. ServiceNow fell -2.45%, Twilio -2.22%, and Paycom -2.85%. Global X's cloud fund slipped -0.66%.
- ③ Oil turned around. Thursday's rally came on China's fuel export halt. Friday's drop came on the G7 release. Crude is still near $91, and USO keeps the top rank for now.
- ④ The last report covered the October 1 close. Its three picks, measured from that close to Friday's: Lam Research +2.17%, Marathon Petroleum +0.52%, and Synopsys -0.13%. The S&P 500 rose +0.73% over the same session. Lam Research beat the index, and Marathon and Synopsys trailed it. Recorded as is.
Today's Three Stocks — Teradyne · Hewlett Packard Enterprise · MACOM Stock Forecast
- Selection: from the 1,157 stocks held by the universe's ETFs — RS 1D≥60 & 5D≥75 & 1M≥85, with all three moving averages aligned (▲▲▲)
Teradyne (TER) — 1-Month RS 98: New Testers for AI Memory
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 99 | 99 | 98 | +31.4% | ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics · iShares Semiconductor · Roundhill Humanoid Robotics |
- Up +8.00% to $449.04, and +12.72% over five sessions. Teradyne makes the machines that test chips before they ship, and it also sells factory robots. It launched Magnum E2, a tester for next-generation DRAM and NAND memory used in AI data centers. It also signed a multi-year deal with GS Microelectronics for a test center built on its platforms. For the quarter ended June 28, revenue rose +103.9% to $1.329 billion from $651.8 million. Operating income rose to $437.8 million from $90.7 million. Net income was $374.5 million, or $2.38 a share, against $78.4 million, or $0.49. The stock is up about 132% this year and sits 7.2% below its June 30 closing high of $483.84. The Teradyne stock forecast depends on whether memory makers order the new testers this quarter.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) — 1-Month RS 99: Networking Targets Go Up
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 99 | 97 | 99 | +33.8% | Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure · Global X AI Semiconductor & Quantum · Defiance Quantum |
- Up +7.36% to $69.33, a one-year closing high, and +10.15% over five sessions. HPE sells servers, storage, and networking gear, and it bought Juniper Networks in July 2025. At a networking investor day earlier this week, it raised its fiscal 2027 networking growth forecast to the high teens to low 20s percent, from 14% to 17%. It also raised its yearly cost-savings target from the Juniper deal to $800 million by the end of fiscal 2028. Cloud provider Vultr placed a $1.2 billion order for AMD-based AI server racks. Citigroup raised its price target to $92 from $76. For the quarter ended July 31, revenue rose +33.7% to $12.21 billion from $9.14 billion, with Juniper counted for the full quarter this time. Operating income rose to $1.39 billion from $247 million. Net income was $1.54 billion, or $1.06 a share, against $305 million, or $0.21. The stock is up about 189% this year. The Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock forecast rests on whether AI networking orders keep pace with the new targets.
MACOM (MTSI) — 1-Month RS 96: An Upgrade After the Slide
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 99 | 99 | 96 | +24.9% | iShares Semiconductor |
- Up +6.62% to $321.60, and +12.62% over five sessions. MACOM makes radio-frequency, microwave, and optical chips for data centers, defense, and telecom networks. BMO Capital upgraded the stock to Outperform on Thursday with a $335 target, citing a reset valuation after the pullback from May. The company recently launched a 3.2-terabit optical chipset for AI data-center links. Friday's gain came with the broad chip rally. For the quarter ended July 3, revenue rose +35.8% to $342.2 million from $252.1 million. Operating income rose to $77.1 million from $37.7 million. The stock is up about 88% this year but sits 21.5% below its May 26 closing high of $409.68. The MACOM stock forecast depends on whether data-center orders can carry it back toward the May high.
Teradyne · Hewlett Packard Enterprise · MACOM Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· Teradyne stock forecast — The stock is 7.2% below its June high. Watch whether it closes above $483.84. A close back under $415.79, Thursday's level, would erase Friday's jump.
· Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock forecast — The stock closed at a one-year high. Watch whether it holds above $64.58, Thursday's close, after the investor-day run. Citigroup's $92 target is the upside marker.
· MACOM stock forecast — The stock is close to BMO's target already. Watch whether it clears $335. Two big up days in a row leave room for a pullback.
What to Watch on Next Week's Calendar
- OPEC+ meeting, Sunday October 4. Producers meet two days after the G7 release pushed WTI down to $91.26. Higher output on top of the reserve barrels would weigh on USO's top rank.
- September ISM services index, Monday October 5 (11:00 p.m. KST). The jobs report was weak, but the 10-year still closed at 5.28%. A soft services reading would back up the jobs data. A hot price component would push yields higher again.
- 10-year Treasury auction and FOMC minutes, Thursday October 8 (2:00 a.m. and 3:00 a.m. KST). The auction tests demand at yields near 5.28%. The minutes show how many officials favored more hikes before the jobs miss.
- Samsung Electronics preliminary third-quarter results and TSMC September sales, Thursday October 8. Both are early reads on memory and chip demand. Strong numbers would support Teradyne's memory testers and the chip funds near the top of the ranking.
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