💡 Today's US market in three lines
① Today's three stocks: Bloom Energy · Qualcomm · Lattice Semiconductor — a fuel-cell maker whose biggest customer reaffirmed a 2.4-gigawatt contract, a chip designer that renewed its Apple patent license, and a low-power chip supplier whose quarterly revenue rose +62%.
② On September 25, the S&P 500 rose +0.51% to 7,743.41 and the Dow gained +0.93%. 81 of the 129 ETFs in our universe closed higher, and 8 of the 11 sector SPDRs rose.
③ Hydrogen rose +3.07% and fabless chips +1.77%, while cybersecurity fell -4.16% and oil -3.11%.
Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- The market ended the week with a broad gain, but the strongest group of the month took the heaviest hit. Cybersecurity, ranked first on the sheet, fell the most of any fund in our universe.
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,743.41, up +0.51% or 39.28 points. The Nasdaq rose +0.48% to 27,068.72, and the Dow added +0.93% to 51,828.62. The Russell 2000 fund (IWM) rose only +0.11%. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) gained +0.40% and the Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ) +0.46%, so gains were spread fairly evenly. Growth and value moved together, +0.50% for the Russell 1000 Growth fund (IWF) and +0.47% for the Russell 1000 Value fund (IWD).
- Breadth improved sharply from Thursday: 81 of the 129 funds in our universe closed higher, 47 closed lower, and one was unchanged. Industrials (+0.95%), technology (+0.80%), and financials (+0.57%) led the sector SPDRs. Communication services (-0.90%), energy (-0.89%), and real estate (-0.22%) were the only three that fell.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.18%, another high since 2007, and the 30-year yield reached 5.50%. The University of Michigan's final September consumer sentiment reading fell to 48.1 from 51.7 in August, a four-month low, as households cited gas prices and tariffs. Oil fell as US and Iranian negotiators met in New York on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks rose anyway. Lower oil prices took some pressure off inflation fears even while yields kept climbing.
Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, September 25, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| Global X Cybersecurity (BUG) | -4.16% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Fabless Semiconductor (SMHX) | +1.77% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | -3.64% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔽 |
| Global X AI Semiconductor & Quantum (CHPX) | +0.94% | 98 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | -3.11% | 97 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- Three of the five leaders fell on a day when most funds rose. Cybersecurity, natural gas, and oil all lost more than 3%, but a single session does not undo a month of gains, so they keep their ranks. Chips moved the other way. Fabless chips (SMHX) now ranks 99 and AI chips (CHPX) 98, both trading above all three moving averages. Natural gas is the only leader still below its one-year average.
Why They're Strong — Sector Issues
· Cybersecurity (BUG · IHAK · CIBR) — Global X's cybersecurity fund fell -4.16%, iShares' fund -3.17%, and First Trust's fund -2.17%. Zscaler dropped -10.06% after its chief revenue officer, Mike Rich, said he would step down for personal reasons. The company named its head of worldwide sales, Ross Tackett, as his successor from October 1 and made no change to guidance. SentinelOne lost -6.67%, Okta -5.54%, Palo Alto Networks -3.89%, and CrowdStrike -2.90%. A Goldman Sachs basket of cybersecurity stocks had closed at a record on Wednesday, and CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Fortinet have each gained more than 130% since April 10. After a run like that, one executive change was enough to trigger selling. BUG is still up +11.83% over one month.
· Oil and natural gas (USO · UNG) — The oil fund fell -3.11% as talks between the US and Iran raised hopes that tankers could soon move through the Strait of Hormuz again. The natural gas fund lost -3.64% and gave back more than half of Thursday's +6.26% jump. Producers fell less, with Exxon Mobil down -0.96% and Chevron -0.58%. USO is still up +16.47% over one month, the largest gain in our universe.
1-Month RS Trend
- The 45-day chart tracks hydrogen, airlines, homebuilders, cybersecurity, and oil. Hydrogen (HYDR) started the window at 2, peaked at 88 on August 26, and sits at 79. Airlines (JETS) reached 72 on August 5, dropped to 1 on August 26, and have climbed back to 57. Homebuilders (XHB) peaked at 63 on August 7, fell to 3 on September 18, and recovered to 27 in one week. Cybersecurity (BUG) fell to 19 on September 11, reached 100 on September 21, and is at 99. Oil (USO) started at 100, dropped to 9 on August 24, and is back at 100.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· Silver miners (SIL) lost -54 points in five trading days, from 68 to 14. Gold miners (GDX) dropped -51 points, junior gold miners (GDXJ) -45, silver (SLV) -33, and Alerian's pipeline fund (AMLP) -29.
· Rising yields keep pressing on metals that pay no interest. SIL is down -3.82% over five sessions and GDX -2.73%, even though both rose on Friday. Copper miners show a bigger drop in our five-day calculation, but the sheet rank does not confirm it, so it is left out.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· The space theme fund (ORBX) rebounded +58 points in five sessions, from 22 to 80. Humanoid robots (HUMN) gained +44 points, Procure's space fund (UFO) +41, iShares' biotech fund (IBB) +26, and homebuilders (XHB) +24.
· These moves came mostly from other funds falling. UFO is up only +0.79% over five sessions and HUMN +0.47%. When silver, gold, and pipeline funds drop, a flat fund climbs the ranking. Homebuilders are the exception, with ITB up +2.31% for the week.
Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by September 25 closing move — 81 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| Global X Hydrogen (HYDR) | +3.07% | 80 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| U.S. Global Jets (JETS) | +1.83% | 66 | 🔺 | 🔽 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Fabless Semiconductor (SMHX) | +1.77% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X CleanTech (CTEC) | +1.66% | 59 | 🔽 | 🔽 | 🔽 |
| iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers (IHF) | +1.62% | 66 | 🔽 | 🔽 | 🔺 |
- The list mixes clean energy, travel, chips, and health insurers. No single theme dominated, and the gains were small, with the top fund up about 3%. Hydrogen and clean tech bounced after a hard week for rate-sensitive energy funds. Airlines rose as oil fell.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Hydrogen and clean energy (HYDR · CTEC · ICLN) — The hydrogen fund rose +3.07%, clean tech +1.66%, and iShares' global clean energy fund +1.53%. Bloom Energy did most of the work. It jumped +8.27% after Oracle said its Project Jupiter data center campus in New Mexico remains on schedule, despite a force majeure notice Oracle sent to the project's developer. Bloom makes up 17.6% of HYDR. Plug Power rose only +1.02% and FuelCell Energy +0.61%, so the gain came from a single contract. Airlines had a simpler reason. Delta rose +2.63% and United +2.52% as oil prices fell.
· Chips (SMHX · SOXX · CHPX) — Fabless chips rose +1.77%, iShares' semiconductor fund +1.17%, and AI chips +0.94%. Lattice Semiconductor gained +4.77% and Qualcomm +3.97%. Micron added +0.16% ahead of its earnings report next week. SMHX is up +7.78% over five sessions, and the chip funds now hold three of the top seven ranks on the sheet.
Leading Sectors: Hydrogen, Chips, Airlines
- ① Yields rose again, and stocks rose with them. The 10-year yield reached 5.18%, and consumer sentiment fell to a four-month low. Yet 81 of 129 funds closed higher. Oil did the work. With USO down -3.11%, investors saw less inflation pressure from energy and bought airlines, homebuilders, and industrials.
- ② The day's gains went to groups with their own news. Hydrogen had Oracle's statement. Chips had Qualcomm's Apple license and Lattice's product cycle. Neither story depends on rates, and both groups trade above their 1-month and 1-quarter moving averages.
- ③ The losses hit crowded trades. Cybersecurity, oil, and natural gas all rank 97 or higher on the sheet, and all three fell more than 3%. When the most-owned groups fall on a day the market rises, investors are taking profits rather than selling everything. The sheet still ranks cybersecurity first.
- ④ The last report covered the September 24 close. Its three picks, measured from that close to Friday: Meta -3.33%, 10x Genomics +1.90%, and CareDx +3.76%. The S&P 500 rose +0.51% over the same session. 10x Genomics and CareDx beat the index, and Meta trailed it after giving back part of Thursday's +4.50% gain. Recorded as is.
Today's Three Stocks — Bloom Energy · Qualcomm · Lattice Semiconductor Stock Forecast
- Selection: from the 1,154 stocks held by the universe's ETFs — RS 1D≥60 & 5D≥75 & 1M≥85, with all three moving averages aligned (▲▲▲)
Bloom Energy (BE) — 1-Month RS 99: Oracle Stands by 2.4 Gigawatts
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 100 | 95 | 99 | +32.3% | Global X Hydrogen · iShares Global Clean Energy · iShares Energy Storage & Materials |
- Up +8.27% to $288.70, +8.69% over five sessions and about 232% higher than at the end of 2025. Oracle sent a force majeure notice to the developer of Project Jupiter, a data center campus in New Mexico built for OpenAI. The notice lets Oracle defer some payments if the project misses its schedule. Oracle then said the project remains on its planned timeline, and Bloom said Oracle is still committed to its 2.4-gigawatt fuel cell order. The stock rose on the reassurance. Two permits are still pending, one for a natural gas pipeline and one for air quality. The business has grown fast. First-quarter revenue rose +130.4% to $751.1 million from $326.0 million, and operating income was $72.2 million against a loss of $19.1 million a year earlier. Second-quarter revenue was reported at about $1.07 billion, up about 166%. The stock is still 16.5% below its one-year closing high of $345.85. The Bloom Energy stock forecast now depends on those two permits as much as on the next quarter.
Qualcomm (QCOM) — 1-Month RS 98: The Apple License Stays
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 97 | 98 | 98 | +23.4% | VanEck Fabless Semiconductor · iShares U.S. Digital Infrastructure and Real Estate · iShares Semiconductor |
- Up +3.97% to $201.97, and +13.65% over five sessions. Reports said Qualcomm renewed its global patent license agreement with Apple on September 24, which removes a long-standing risk to its licensing revenue. At its Snapdragon Summit this week, the company introduced the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 chips for premium Android phones. The results explain why the license mattered. For the quarter ended June 28, revenue fell -4.0% to $9.95 billion from $10.37 billion, operating income fell -41.1% to $1.63 billion from $2.76 billion, and net income fell -24.9% to $2.00 billion. The stock is up about 18% from the end of 2025 but still 19.5% below its one-year high of $251.02. The Qualcomm stock forecast depends on whether new phone chips can turn revenue back to growth.
Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) — 1-Month RS 90: Revenue Up 62%
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 98 | 98 | 90 | +7.3% | Global X Internet of Things · VanEck Fabless Semiconductor |
- Up +4.77% to $128.05, and +15.40% over five sessions. Lattice makes small, low-power programmable chips (FPGAs) used in servers, cars, and factory equipment. On September 16 it launched the Mach-N2 family, which adds post-quantum encryption and is already sampling at key customers, along with a free AI design tool. Benchmark Research has since started coverage with a Buy rating and a $160 target. The numbers have turned sharply. For the quarter ended July 4, revenue rose +62.2% to $201.1 million from $124.0 million. Operating income rose to $22.4 million from $4.7 million, and net income to $19.4 million from $2.9 million. The Lattice Semiconductor stock forecast depends on whether data center demand keeps revenue growing at this pace.
Bloom Energy · Qualcomm · Lattice Semiconductor Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· Bloom Energy stock forecast — Oracle's force majeure notice is still in place. Watch whether the pipeline and air-quality permits for Project Jupiter are granted. Those approvals decide whether the 2.4-gigawatt order stays on schedule.
· Qualcomm stock forecast — Operating income fell -41.1% last quarter. Watch whether revenue returns to year-over-year growth in the next report. The Apple license removes a risk, but it does not add new sales.
· Lattice Semiconductor stock forecast — The stock rose +15.40% in five sessions. Watch whether it holds above $122.22, Thursday's close. A move back below that level would suggest the rally has run ahead of the product cycle.
What to Watch on Next Week's Calendar
- OpenAI DevDay, Tuesday September 29 (US time). Sam Altman gives the keynote. Bloom Energy rose +8.27% on news that Oracle is sticking with a data center campus built for OpenAI. Any update on OpenAI's computing plans would bear directly on that project.
- August PCE price index, Wednesday September 30 (9:30 p.m. KST). The 10-year yield reached 5.18% on Friday. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. A hot reading would push yields higher and hurt rate-sensitive groups such as homebuilders, which only just started to recover.
- US budget deadline for fiscal 2027, Wednesday September 30. Congress has to pass funding by the end of the month or the government shuts down. A shutdown would delay the jobs report and other federal data while the bond market is setting the direction for stocks.
- Micron earnings, Thursday October 1 (5:00 a.m. KST). Chip funds hold three of the top seven ranks on the sheet, and SMHX is up +7.78% in five sessions. Micron's results will show whether memory demand still supports that run.
- September jobs report, Friday October 2 (9:30 p.m. KST). Strong hiring would give the Fed another reason to keep rates high and push yields up further. A weak report would ease that pressure.
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