💡 Today's US market in three lines
① Today's three stocks: Phillips 66 · International Seaways · Zscaler — a refiner and a tanker owner at one-year highs, plus a security software name still climbing back.
② On October 8, the S&P 500 fell -0.47% to 7,765.36 and the Nasdaq -1.25%, while the Dow edged up +0.10%. 54 of the 129 ETFs in our universe closed higher, and 8 of the 11 sector SPDRs rose.
③ Oil and gas producers rose +3.45% and the energy SPDR +2.97%, while the meme stock fund fell -5.84% and fabless chips -3.63%.
Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- Chips sold off. Oil and staples took the money. Most stocks actually rose.
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,765.36, down -0.47% or 36.41 points, its second straight loss. The Nasdaq fell -1.25%, or 345.35 points, to 27,193.34. The Dow rose +0.10%, or 51.77 points, to 51,231.64. Under the surface the picture was different. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) gained +0.60%, and the Russell 2000 fund (IWM) was nearly flat at -0.05%. Growth lost to value by a wide margin: the Russell 1000 Growth fund (IWF) fell -1.28%, while the Russell 1000 Value fund (IWD) rose +0.49%.
- Breadth was much better than the index suggests. 54 of the 129 funds in our universe closed higher and 75 closed lower, and 8 of the 11 sector SPDRs rose. Energy led at +2.97%, followed by consumer staples (+2.11%) and financials (+0.89%). Technology fell the most at -1.79%. Health care slipped -0.39% and utilities -0.19%.
- Two headlines drove the split. A Financial Times report said OpenAI's annualized revenue was about $20 billion lower than earlier estimates, and chip stocks fell hard on doubts about AI spending. Oil climbed after President Trump said he did not want a deal with Iran to end the war. He later said the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections, and crude came off its highs. WTI crude futures still settled up +3.29% at $91.18 a barrel, and Brent rose +3.71% to $103.92. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.23%. Gold rose +0.43% to $4,158.30, and Bitcoin fell -1.94% to near $81,660. Money did not leave stocks. It moved from chips into oil and steady earners.
Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, October 8, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices. Trend columns compare price to its 1-month, 1-quarter, and 1-year moving averages.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| Global X Cybersecurity (BUG) | +0.17% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Cybersecurity and Tech (IHAK) | +1.11% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity (CIBR) | -0.35% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) | -3.35% | 98 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Fabless Semiconductor (SMHX) | -3.63% | 97 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- Cybersecurity now holds the top three spots. All three cyber funds held steady while chips fell more than -3%. Over one month, BUG leads our universe at +17.30%, IHAK is up +12.69%, and CIBR +12.40%. The two chip funds slipped in rank but still trade above all three averages.
Why They're Strong — Sector Issues
· Cybersecurity (BUG · IHAK · CIBR) — The cyber funds were mixed but firm, with BUG up +0.17% and IHAK +1.11%. Zscaler rose +1.53% and Okta +1.01%, a one-year closing high for Okta. CrowdStrike lost -0.92% and Palo Alto Networks -1.74%. Security spending does not depend on how fast AI revenue grows, so these names held up on a day of AI doubts. BUG is up +3.14% over five sessions.
· Semiconductors (SOXX · SMHX) — The iShares semiconductor fund fell -3.35% and fabless chips -3.63%. Selling was broad. Nvidia fell -2.94%, AMD -3.90%, and Broadcom -4.35%. Micron lost -4.79%, Intel -5.34%, and Arm -6.48%. Taiwan Semiconductor fell -3.01%. The FT report questioned how fast AI spending can grow. Chip stocks carry the most AI hope, so they fell first. SOXX is down -2.26% over five sessions.
1-Month RS Trend
- The 45-day chart tracks oil producers, consumer staples, natural gas producers, semiconductors, and meme stocks. The oil and gas producer fund (IEO) peaked at 98 on September 8, dipped to 51 on September 22, and is back at 84. The consumer staples SPDR (XLP) sat at 9 on August 27 and now reads 75, its highest level in the window. The natural gas producer fund (FCG) peaked at 95 on September 15, fell to 10 on October 1, and has recovered to 37. The iShares semiconductor fund (SOXX) climbed from 2 on August 10 to 100 on September 30 and now sits at 94. The meme fund (MEME) bottomed at 3 on September 16 and stands at 86.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· Roundhill humanoid robots (HUMN) fell -39 points in five sessions, from 68 to 29. It dropped -4.21% on Thursday alone.
· Our five-day calculation also flags blockchain, on-chain economy, hydrogen, and clean-tech funds, but their sheet ranks disagree, so we left them out.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· The consumer staples SPDR (XLP) rebounded +40 points in five sessions, from 35 to 75. Invesco food and beverage (PBJ) gained +31 points, the consumer discretionary SPDR (XLY) +29, First Trust natural gas (FCG) +27, and Global X MLP and energy infrastructure (MLPX) +24.
· Staples and energy lead this list. XLP is up +3.85% over five sessions and FCG +3.37%. Defensive buying and fuel prices are pulling in the same direction.
Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by October 8 closing move — 54 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (IEO) | +3.45% | 83 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) | +2.97% | 72 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP) | +2.79% | 72 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | +2.55% | 87 | 🔽 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Oil Refiners (CRAK) | +2.34% | 93 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- All five are oil funds. Four of them trade above all three averages. USO is still below its 1-month average and down -1.63% over five sessions. Producer stocks have run ahead of oil itself.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Oil producers and oil (IEO · XLE · XOP · USO) — Crude jumped after Trump's comments on Iran. The big producers followed. Exxon Mobil rose +2.71%, Chevron +3.12%, and ConocoPhillips +3.35%. Occidental gained +3.56%, APA +3.79%, and Diamondback +3.96%. Higher oil prices flow straight into producer profits. IEO is up +6.27% over five sessions.
· Refiners and tankers (CRAK · BOAT) — Refiners rose even more than producers. PBF Energy gained +6.76%, Marathon Petroleum +4.77%, and Valero +4.65%. Phillips 66 rose +3.67%, and all four closed at one-year highs. Tanker owners joined in. Okeanis Eco Tankers rose +7.27%, Frontline +6.03%, and International Seaways +4.17%. Supply risks around Iran keep fuel margins and freight rates high. CRAK is up +5.86% over five sessions.
Leading Sectors: Oil, Refiners, Consumer Staples
- ① AI doubts hit chips. One report on OpenAI's revenue was enough to knock the biggest chip stocks down about -3% to -6%. The Nasdaq fell -1.25%, while the equal-weight S&P 500 rose +0.60%. That gap shows a rotation, not a broad sell-off.
- ② Oil took the lead. Producers, refiners, and tankers all rose, and refiners hit one-year highs together. Investors are betting that tension with Iran keeps oil supply tight.
- ③ Investors bought steady earners. Philip Morris rose +4.05% to a one-year closing high, and PepsiCo gained +3.73% after its quarterly report. Coca-Cola added +2.27%. Crypto and space names kept falling. IREN and CleanSpark dropped about -7.7% each, and AST SpaceMobile -6.13%.
- ④ The last report covered the October 7 close. Its three picks, measured from that close to Thursday's: AbbVie +0.39%, Valero +4.65%, and Okeanis Eco Tankers +7.27%. The S&P 500 fell -0.47% over the same session. All three beat the index for the second report in a row. The refiner and tanker picks gained the most as oil jumped. Recorded as is.
Today's Three Stocks — Phillips 66 · International Seaways · Zscaler Stock Forecast
- Selection: from the 1,154 stocks held by the universe's ETFs — RS 1D≥60 & 5D≥75 & 1M≥85, with all three moving averages aligned (▲▲▲)
Phillips 66 (PSX) — 1-Month RS 88: A Refiner at a One-Year High
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 96 | 94 | 88 | +8.0% | VanEck Oil Refiners · Energy Select Sector SPDR · iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
- Up +3.67% to $281.60, a one-year closing high, and +6.57% over five sessions. The previous closing high was $274.21 on September 17. Phillips 66 runs refineries and also owns pipelines, a chemicals joint venture, and fuel marketing. Refining is the part that moves most with fuel margins. For the quarter ended June 30, revenue rose +53.1% to $51.00 billion from $33.32 billion. Net income was $3.85 billion, or $9.55 a share, against $877 million, or $2.15, a year earlier. The Phillips 66 stock forecast depends on whether fuel margins stay this wide into the fourth quarter.
International Seaways (INSW) — 1-Month RS 95: Tanker Profits Keep Rising
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 97 | 94 | 95 | +16.4% | SonicShares Global Shipping |
- Up +4.17% to $121.82, a one-year closing high, and +6.30% over five sessions. International Seaways owns tankers that carry crude oil and refined fuels. Much of its fleet earns spot rates, so higher freight rates reach profits quickly. For the quarter ended June 30, revenue rose +138.9% to $467.3 million from $195.6 million. Operating income climbed to $301.3 million from $69.4 million. Net income was $294.9 million, or $5.91 a share, against $61.6 million, or $1.25, a year earlier. The International Seaways stock forecast rests on how long supply risks keep tanker rates this high.
Zscaler (ZS) — 1-Month RS 99: Security Software Climbing Back
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 75 | 97 | 99 | +30.5% | Global X Cybersecurity · iShares Cybersecurity and Tech · Global X Cloud Computing |
- Up +1.53% to $216.81 on a day the Nasdaq fell -1.25%, and +9.07% over five sessions. The stock is still far below its one-year closing high of $336.27 from November 2025, so this is a recovery, not a breakout. Zscaler sells cloud security that sits between users and the apps they reach. At its Investor Day on October 6, the company reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook of $3.91 billion to $3.94 billion. For the fiscal year ended July 31, revenue rose +25.4% to $3.35 billion from $2.67 billion. The company still runs at a loss under standard accounting, with a net loss of $63.2 million against $41.5 million a year earlier. The Zscaler stock forecast depends on whether growth holds near that guidance as the company shifts toward AI security.
Phillips 66 · International Seaways · Zscaler Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· Phillips 66 stock forecast — The stock broke above its September high. Watch whether it holds above $274.21, the old closing high. Falling back below it would mean the breakout failed.
· International Seaways stock forecast — The stock is up +16.4% in one month. Watch whether it holds above $116.94, Wednesday's close. A drop below it would show the oil spike fading.
· Zscaler stock forecast — The stock rose through a chip sell-off. Watch whether it holds above $212.25, its close on Investor Day. Holding there keeps the recovery on track.
What to Watch on Next Week's Calendar
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday October 9 (11:00 p.m. KST). The preliminary October reading includes inflation expectations. Oil rose more than +3% on Thursday. Higher expectations would push the rate outlook in the wrong direction for growth stocks.
- September CPI, Wednesday October 14 (9:30 p.m. KST). Energy prices feed straight into this number. A hot reading would support Thursday's rotation into oil and staples and add pressure on chips.
- ASML and TSMC third-quarter results, Wednesday October 14 (2:00 p.m. KST) and Thursday October 15 (3:00 p.m. KST). These are the first big chip reports since the FT story. Their orders and guidance will show whether AI spending is actually slowing.
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