💡 Today's US market in three lines
① Today's three stocks: Salesforce · ServiceNow · CrowdStrike — the software names that closed at six-month highs on a day the index fell.
② On August 31, the S&P 500 closed -0.58% lower at 7,686.14 and the Dow fell -0.72% to 53,185.90. Only 21 of the 129 ETFs in our universe rose, and 8 of the 11 sector SPDRs finished in the red.
③ The damage landed on the miners. Gold miners fell -5.00%, silver miners -5.03%, and uranium -5.91%. A jump in Treasury yields did it, and energy was the one place that gained.
Today's Sector Relative Strength (RS)
- Monday, August 31 turned on a single event. US forces struck Iranian military assets after detecting preparations to mine the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran answered with missiles and drones aimed at US facilities in Jordan. It was the first exchange since July. Crude climbed above $85 a barrel, and the cost of energy pushed inflation expectations up with it. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.76%, its highest since January 2025.
- That yield is the whole story of the day. Gold usually rises when missiles fly, and this time it did not — bullion fell and the miners fell harder. The S&P 500 closed -0.58% at 7,686.14, the Nasdaq -0.64% at 26,370.89, and the Dow -0.72% at 53,185.90. Underneath, the tape was worse than the index. Of the 129 ETFs in our universe, only 21 rose while 108 fell. Among the 11 sector SPDRs, just three finished higher, and Energy was the one that mattered at +2.64%.
- The setup was already in place before the strikes. At Jackson Hole the previous Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the central bank would "have work to do" if inflation was not returning to 2% — the closest he has come to naming rate hikes. Futures moved fast: the odds of a September hike went from 35% on Thursday to 60.4% by Monday. Rising rates take the shine off an asset that pays no interest, and gold has been the most crowded trade of the past month.
- Style tells the same story from another angle. Value is up +21.1% year to date against just +4.0% for growth, so the year's rotation into hard assets and cash flow has not reversed. What changed on Monday was which hard asset the market wanted.
Today's Leading Sectors TOP 5
- Basis: top 5 by 1-month RS rank on the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet — 129-ETF universe, August 31, 2026. Daily moves are measured from Yahoo closing prices.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) | -5.00% | 100 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) | -5.09% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X Silver Miners (SIL) | -5.03% | 99 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| WisdomTree Cloud Computing (WCLD) | +0.12% | 97 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Expanded Tech-Software (IGV) | -0.31% | 96 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- The table is split down the middle. The top three seats still belong to the miners, because a one-month record does not unwind in a single session — gold miners are still +28.3% over the month even after Monday. But all three fell about 5% on the day, which is what the RRG shows as a move into the weakening quadrant: high level, negative momentum. The fourth and fifth seats are cloud and software, and those two barely moved. Same relative strength, opposite behavior under stress.
Why They're Strong — Sector Issues
· Gold and silver miners (GDX · GDXJ · SIL) — The month is still theirs. Gold miners hold an RS of 100 and silver miners 99, built on a +28.3% and +28.6% run over the past month. Monday took roughly 5% back from each. Bullion itself fell -3.36% while the miners fell about -5%, the same leverage that worked on the way up working in reverse. Rate expectations, not the Middle East, set that price.
· Cloud computing (WCLD) — RS 97 with a +23.5% month, and it closed +0.12% on a day the Nasdaq lost -0.64%. Enterprise software has spent August rerating on agentic AI results rather than promises, and the earnings behind that move arrived in the last week of the month. This is where the money that left the metals had somewhere to sit.
· Oil services (OIH) — Not in the top five by monthly rank, but it is the sector the day actually belonged to, up +3.43% and carrying an RS of 81 that was 16 just 45 trading days ago. When crude moves on supply risk rather than demand, the service and equipment names lever it hardest.
1-Month RS Trend
- Across 45 trading days the lines have crossed. Gold miners went from 26 to 98 and silver miners from 17 to 99, and both are still near the top — the damage of one day does not show up yet at this scale. Energy is the line that changed direction: the energy sector climbed from 37 to 75, and oil services from 16 to 89. Cloud computing sat high the whole time, 83 to 98, which is the quietest and most durable path on the chart. Utilities went the other way entirely, from 71 down to 2.
RS Breakdown Warnings (big 5-day drops)
· European defense fell -56 points in five trading days, from 78 to 22, the sharpest break in the universe. Gaming followed at -54 and video games at -53. These are names that had been carried by momentum rather than earnings, and momentum left them first.
· Consumer-facing internet cracked too. E-commerce fell -42 points and online retail -42, with millennial consumer -30 behind them. Medical devices at -29 and consumer discretionary at -21 round out the list. Higher yields press hardest on the sectors whose customers borrow.
RS Rebound Signals (sharp bounces off the bottom)
· Natural gas gained +59 points in five trading days, from 5 to 64, the largest move on the board. Hydrogen followed at +55 and crude oil at +51, from 11 to 62. Energy did not drift back — it snapped.
· Semiconductors came with them. AI semiconductors and quantum rose +51 points, fabless chips +43, and the broad semiconductor ETF +42 from a base of 12. Generative AI added +41 to reach 76. Two very different trades, one direction.
Today's Top Rising Sectors TOP 5 (by 1-day %)
- Basis: top 5 by August 31 closing move — 21 of 129 rose on the day. RS ranks from the 'Sector RS (US)' sheet.
| ETF | 1-Day | RS Rank 1M | Short-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term |
| VanEck Oil Refiners (CRAK) | +3.80% | 90 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| VanEck Oil Services (OIH) | +3.43% | 81 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| iShares Oil Equipment & Services (IEZ) | +3.30% | 76 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| US Oil Fund (USO) | +2.84% | 69 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
| Global X AgTech (KROP) | +2.68% | 60 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 |
- Four of the five are the same trade: crude, and the companies that service the wells. The fifth is agriculture, which moves on the same input — diesel and fertilizer both start with energy. Every one of the five sits above its short-, mid-, and long-term moving averages, so this is not a bounce off a broken chart. It is a sector that has been rebuilding since July getting a catalyst.
Why They Rose — Sector Issues
· Refiners and oil services (CRAK · OIH · IEZ) — Refining margins widen when crude spikes on supply fear, and the service names carry the most operating leverage to a rising rig count. Oil services has run +14.2% over the month while the broad energy sector managed +8.4%.
· Crude itself (USO) — Up +2.84% on the day and back above $85 a barrel. The trigger was the Strait of Hormuz: roughly a fifth of seaborne oil passes through it, and the market prices that chokepoint whenever mines are mentioned.
· Uranium (URA) — The other side of the day and worth naming here. It fell -5.91%, the worst in the universe, with nuclear at -5.43%. Uranium had been trading as a rate-sensitive growth story rather than an energy story, and Monday sorted the two apart. It still holds an RS of 88, so this is a break in momentum rather than in trend.
Leading Sectors: Gold Miners, Cloud Computing, Oil Services
- ① The metal trade broke on rates, not on war. Gold fell -3.36% and the miners about -5% on the day the US and Iran exchanged fire — the opposite of the reflex most investors carry. What moved was the 10-year yield, to 4.76%, and gold pays nothing to hold. A month of relative strength is intact; a day of it is not.
- ② Energy took the seat the metals left. The energy sector was +2.64% and oil services +3.43% while every other risk sector fell. Crude above $85 does two things at once: it lifts the companies that produce it and it raises the inflation number that keeps the Fed hawkish. The second effect is what hit everything else on the board.
- ③ Software did not participate in either direction, and that is the point. Cloud computing closed +0.12% and software -0.31% against a -0.64% Nasdaq, holding RS ranks of 97 and 96. Late-August earnings from the enterprise names reset the AI conversation from spending to results, and only 24 of the 129 ETFs still sit above all four of their moving averages. Software and cybersecurity account for a large share of that shrinking list.
- ④ The last report was dated August 21. Its three picks, measured from that close to Monday: AngloGold Ashanti -7.34%, Wheaton Precious Metals -4.40%, Freeport-McMoRan -1.20%. The S&P 500 returned +0.15% over the same stretch, so all three lost to the index — the mining call was right for a month and wrong for the last week of it. Recorded as is.
Today's Three Stocks — Salesforce · ServiceNow · CrowdStrike Stock Forecast
- Selection: from the 1,152 stocks held by the universe's 124 ETFs — RS 1D≥60 & 5D≥75 & 1M≥85, with all three moving averages aligned (▲▲▲)
Salesforce (CRM) — 1-Month RS 98: EPS of $5.90 Against a $3.27 Estimate
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 92 | 100 | 98 | +42.5% | iShares Expanded Tech-Software · Global X Cloud Computing |
- Up +2.18% to $257.54, a six-month closing high reached on a day the index fell. The move started with the August 26 quarter. Revenue was $11.35 billion, up 11% from a year earlier, and non-GAAP earnings came in at $5.90 a share against a $3.27 consensus. Operating cash flow rose +71% to $1.3 billion and free cash flow +81% to $1.1 billion. Management then raised full-year guidance to $46.1–46.4 billion in revenue and $16.67–16.71 in adjusted EPS, the latter implying 33% growth. Current remaining performance obligations, the best forward read on this business, grew 14% to $33.5 billion. The stock rose more than 20% on the day of the print, its largest single-session gain since 2020. The Salesforce stock forecast now rests on whether agentic AI keeps showing up in cRPO rather than in the narrative.
ServiceNow (NOW) — 1-Month RS 96: The Day's Biggest Gain Among the Three
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 99 | 100 | 96 | +34.5% | iShares Expanded Tech-Software · Global X Cloud Computing |
- Up +6.91% to $147.99, the strongest single-day move of the three and another six-month high. Second-quarter revenue was $3.99 billion, up 24% year over year, growth that is unusual at this size. The stock has gained +34.5% over the month against +17.9% for the software ETF it sits in, so it is not simply riding the sector. What separates ServiceNow is that its workflow platform is where enterprise AI agents actually get deployed, which turns AI budgets into seat and platform expansion rather than a competing line item. The ServiceNow stock forecast depends on that deployment cycle holding through the fourth quarter, when IT budgets reset.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) — 1-Month RS 92: Net New ARR of $333 Million
| RS 1D | RS 5D | RS 1M | 1M Return | Held By |
| 87 | 100 | 92 | +24.7% | First Trust Cybersecurity · iShares Expanded Tech-Software · Global X Cybersecurity |
- Up +1.33% to $231.00, also a six-month high. The August 26 quarter was a record: revenue of $1.47 billion and net new annual recurring revenue of $333 million, with full-year ARR guidance lifted to $6.607 billion. The number worth watching is Falcon Flex, the flexible consumption program, whose ARR passed $2.29 billion and grew 101% from a year earlier — customers are consolidating more security spend onto one platform rather than buying point tools. The stock gained roughly 20% the day after the print. Cybersecurity as a sector carries an RS of 92, close behind software's 96, so the CrowdStrike stock forecast has a sector bid underneath it — the question is how much of that bid belongs to consolidation rather than to security budgets broadly.
Salesforce · ServiceNow · CrowdStrike Stock Forecast Checkpoints
· Salesforce stock forecast — The quarter beat on earnings by a wide margin, but the durable number is cRPO. Watch whether cRPO growth holds near 14% in the next print. Guidance implying 33% EPS growth leaves no room for that figure to decelerate.
· ServiceNow stock forecast — Revenue growing 24% at a $4 billion quarterly base is the thing to protect. Watch whether the fourth-quarter budget cycle brings platform expansion. This is when enterprises decide if AI agents move from pilot to standard tooling.
· CrowdStrike stock forecast — Falcon Flex is doing the work. Watch whether net new ARR stays above $300 million a quarter. Consolidation onto one platform is a finite process, and the pace of it is what the current multiple assumes.
What to Watch on Next Week's Calendar
- Broadcom earnings, Thursday 5:00 a.m. KST (Wednesday after the US close). The semiconductor rebound signals in this report — AI chips and quantum +51 points, fabless +43, the broad chip ETF +42 — are a bet that AI infrastructure spending is reaccelerating. Broadcom's custom-silicon commentary is the single largest test of that bet.
- US August jobs report, Friday 9:30 p.m. KST. Monday's damage came from rate expectations, with September hike odds at 60.4%. A hot payroll number pushes those odds higher and puts the miners under the same pressure again; a soft one gives the metal trade its footing back. This is the most important number of the week for everything in the leading table.
- ISM manufacturing, Tuesday 11:00 p.m. KST, and ISM services Thursday. Both feed the same inflation question. The prices-paid component matters more than the headline this month, because energy costs are the channel through which the Strait of Hormuz reaches the Fed.
- SEMICON Taiwan, Wednesday through Friday. The equipment and packaging side of the chip cycle sets guidance tone here, which lands on the same names the rebound signals just flagged.
- OPEC+ meets Sunday. The group decides output for the month after crude jumped on supply risk. If the answer is more barrels, the energy trade that won Monday gets its first real test.
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